Why is the current Shanzhai industry so stagnant? There are mainly the following reasons:
1. Too many new coins are launched. The recently launched ZRO, ZK, IO and LISTA are all sucking blood. The market value of the coins is too high, and there are a large number of tokens to be unlocked later!
Many people don’t have U, or are stuck with all of it. When a new coin comes out, they can only sell it at a loss or buy U. This leads to a drop in the altcoin market every time a new coin is listed. There is only so much money in the circle!!!
2. The market lacks liquidity. The liquidity of the altcoins started to be a problem in March and April, and funds slowly flowed into BTC and ETH!
3. Most of the project owners have no vision and do not support the market! ! ! !
4. The speed of new coins going online in the current market is too fast, and the market heat is hard to describe. The current currency circle is suitable for currency speculation, not for long-term currency hoarding! ! ! You can only do short-term, and long-term investment is easy to be buried! ! !
5. GBTC’s capital outflow (selling pressure) and the selling pressure from miners in those small mines!
Now we hope that institutions will increase their holdings, and the most important thing is that the ETH ETF will bring a large wave of traffic to the market. If the market liquidity does not change, everything is nonsense!
Let me share some major trends:
This is the third month that BTC has been trading sideways.
Historically, $BTC has paused after reaching its all-time high before reaching its final cycle peak. A longer period of sideways movement means the next rally will be healthier and stronger.
It is now consolidating for 14 weeks after the ETF was approved and is down 12% from its highs. This volatility is expected after the rally that nearly doubled from its recent lows in January 2024.
It is worth noting that the 7-week cycle low in January was $38,000 (a price doubling).
When will the shock end?
Be patient, it has risen 3 times since September 2023, and needs to pull back to accumulate momentum. Similar to the post-doubling cycle low in the first quarter of 2023, a broad base formation preceded the rise in the fourth quarter. The shock may continue until July or August to complete the bottoming.
When might the market peak?
Based on the 4-year cycle, the top may still be far away. Past cycles usually took 33-35 months from low to high. According to this pattern, October 2025 is possible (16-17 months away). The large gap between the 10-month moving average and the price suggests a pullback may be needed.
Possible trends
We may see the next regional bottom soon, possibly by the end of the month. Bullish signs include higher lows and well above the January 2024 low, showing strength in the market.
After this regional bottom, one scenario is to sweep it and reclaim the highs.
The second possible scenario is a continuation of the volatile price action. This phase could last until September, forming a regional bottom but not breaking through the all-time high.
The third possibility is another 30% drop, which is typical in past bull markets. Similar to 2017, but now with ETFs, which is an important difference. Some people think that it is impossible to reach around $55,000 with ETFs, but the probability of this is extremely small!
All three trends converge around October, November, and December 2024, with the goal of breaking out of the all-time high and rising further. During this period, Bitcoin’s movements could significantly impact altcoin ROI.
Give the current cryptocurrency market a positioning. Don’t listen to anyone else’s words, whether it is the early, middle, or late stage of a bull market, or the early, middle, or late stage of a bear market!!!
If you think it is the early stage of the bull market, you will start to make plans slowly. If you think it is the middle stage of the bull market, you will start to leave the market slowly. If you think it is the end of the bull market, you will start to contact various U-exports, or various staking mining with free losses to arbitrage!
If you think that this is the early stage of a bear market, then you should be prepared for a big drop, and wait with short positions, or wait for bad news and then go short a little.
If you feel that this is the middle of a bear market, then you can start researching projects that have not yet been launched or have potential to interact with, earn points, and bet on a bright future!
If you think that this is the end of the bear market, you can withdraw your money, travel and enjoy life, wait for the market to improve, and then come back to buy super cheap bitcoins! ! ! !
Chongge suggests that you should look at more tracks and directions, and observe more. Don’t go all-in on a single coin or a single track. This is extremely irrational and extremely risky! #BTC走势分析
