Author: Zen, PANews
After more than a decade of development, the blockchain industry seems to have accumulated enough potential and stood at the crossroads of large-scale application. From the DeFi summer to the NFT boom, from the outbreak of P2E games to the rise of Web3 social networking, to the now popular "DePin" and "Web3+AI" concepts, there are countless ecosystems and projects of all sizes in the industry, but none of them have been successful in promoting them to the general public.
On the whole, putting aside some prejudices in mainstream society, complex concepts such as smart contracts, addresses, and private key management of blockchain and encryption applications are both innovations that are different from traditional ones and shackles that are difficult to remove. When strengthening users' perception of Web3 elements, it often creates a contrast between high thresholds and costs and poor experience, which has also become the main reason restricting the widespread adoption of Web3.
However, technological innovation has never been achieved overnight from its emergence to its complete transformation of the lives of ordinary people. It is certain that any emerging technology is not fully mature when it first enters the market, and usually needs to go through a long process of iteration and upgrading. As the saying goes, "remember the past and learn from it", by learning from the experience and practices of related industries or fields, more ideas and creativity can be obtained, which can bring inspiration to the Web3 industry.
Large-scale applications require low barriers and simplicity
Looking back at the early exploration and development of the computer industry, it is quite similar to the current predicament of Web3.
In the 1960s and 1970s, computers were mainly used in academic research and government agencies. Computers of this period could only be operated through command lines. Their programming and operation were relatively complex, requiring users to have considerable professional knowledge, and the threshold for use was relatively high. With the development of the computer industry, its application began to spread to more areas of social economy. In the late 1970s, the entrepreneurial boom of personal computers emerged, and the two legendary figures, Jobs and Gates, began to appear on the historical stage. What made them build their respective business empires in the future was the Graphical User Interface (GUI), an interface display format that seems to be very common today.
A graphical user interface is a computer operation user interface that uses graphics to display. It was originally developed by the innovative research institution Palo Alto Research Center (PARC). Compared with the command line interface used in early computers, in addition to reducing the user's operating burden, its graphical interface is also easier for users to accept visually, greatly reducing the learning cost for new users.
In 1979, after Jobs discovered this technology at PARC, he was immediately attracted by its charm. He quickly determined that this was the future of personal computers and applied this interface to Apple products, successively releasing Apple Lisa and Macintosh computers (later referred to as Mac). Microsoft followed closely and released the Windows 1.0 operating system using the GUI concept. As GUI officially entered commercialization, its intuitive, easy-to-use and simple operation characteristics greatly reduced the threshold for computer use, and users did not need much professional knowledge to operate the computer. After more than ten years of technological iterations, personal computers have completely become ordinary electronic products for the general public and suitable for ordinary people.
Steve Jobs and the Macintosh computer, January 1984
In fact, in the business world, there are countless examples of people who have achieved success by implementing Occam's razor. They all point to a common concept, that is, low-threshold, simplified products that are simplified are definitely suitable for ordinary people. In addition to the graphical user interface as a typical transition to user-friendly products, in the Internet industry, grasping the long tail market is another secret to commercial success.
Can the long-tail market be replicated in Web3?
With the emergence of e-commerce platforms and retail models, cultural and entertainment products began to break the limitations of real physics, and the economy dominated by popularity became a product of the old era. The "Long Tail Theory", the iconic theory of Web2.0, emerged. The theory was originally used to describe the business and economic models of platforms such as Amazon and Netflix. It points out that although the demand and sales of a single unpopular product are not high, due to the large number, their total demand is huge, and the common market share they occupy can be comparable to or even larger than that of popular products.
Nowadays, the long tail theory has been widely used in many fields. Traditional asset management institutions, which were once loyal supporters of the "80/20" rule, have also begun to shift their focus to "long tail" investors other than mid- to high-end customers. In today's Web3, no ecosystem can truly meet the personalized needs of different retail investors and create a market scale by gathering small amounts of money. Instead, the user PVP under the "Matthew effect" eventually points to the "80/20" end again and again, causing retail investors to lose confidence and vitality.
To explore whether the long-tail market can be realized in the Web3 field, we must first clarify the basic conditions for exerting this effect: extremely low storage and dissemination costs of products or resources; a large number of small niche markets and broad regional markets; a large network user base, and the ability to tap into and meet their personalized needs. Looking at the entire Web3, the project with the best conditions and resources to integrate the long-tail market is none other than the TON ecological network.
Why is the answer “TON”?
Although both are abbreviated as "TON", today's "TON" (The Open Network) is not completely the same as the "TON" (Telegram Open Network) launched by Telegram in 2019. The latter was cancelled in 2020 after a series of legal disputes, while the former is the result of the community and other developer teams' continued promotion and output. Even though "TON" has lost direct contact with Telegram, as a project supported by Telegram officials and its founder Pavel Durov, "TON" can still be regarded as the "inheritor" and is the only public chain officially recognized by Telegram.
As an encrypted communication tool that values privacy, Telegram's cultural genes are naturally compatible with cryptocurrency. Since its birth in 2013, it has been a gathering place for the cryptocurrency community. Today, the number of Telegram users has reached 900 million, with users spread across Asia, Europe, the Americas and other regions. At the same time, it is also the fastest growing mainstream instant messaging software, with an annual growth rate of 20%, and it is expected to exceed the 1 billion mark this year. Therefore, the unique advantage of being able to reach nearly one billion users is the biggest advantage of the TON ecosystem compared to other native crypto ecosystems. Such a huge potential user scale makes other crypto projects far behind.
In addition to the "human wave tactics", the simple and open Web3 ecosystem based on Telegram bots is another killer feature of TON. Telegram bots are applications on the Telegram platform that help users perform transactions, provide information or game services, and other functions. They do not need to be installed and provide a flexible interactive interface, similar to WeChat's mini-programs, with more than 360 million users using them every month. Just as the graphical user interface greatly simplifies computer operations, Telegram's mini-programs allow TON ecosystem users to stay in the communication chat interface to achieve smooth interaction with various applications in the ecosystem, without having to shuttle between various web pages and switch repeatedly.
The huge number of users from all over the world naturally has a variety of needs and interests. This diversity provides a potential huge long-tail market for the TON ecosystem. In addition, the easy development and integration of Telegram Bots allows developers to quickly develop and release various types of Bots with different functions. This low-cost development and distribution model is conducive to the emergence of a long-tail market. In addition, based on the natural advantages of Telegram's communication and social networking, Bots are also extremely convenient in community dissemination and promotion, and it is easy to achieve fission marketing among the audience and its community.
Create popular products such as Notcoin and Catizen
Low entry threshold + effective dissemination on social media = hot products, this formula has been verified many times in Web2. The most recent one is the 2022 WeChat phenomenon-level mini-game "Sheep Sheep", and the earlier "Jump Jump", and even earlier there are a number of mini-games such as "QQ Farm" and "Grab Parking Space" in the early QQ Space.
In fact, this formula is still used in Web3 and has already begun to emerge in the TON ecosystem. The Telegram game project Notcoin has reached 35 million active users in just a few months this year, and its gameplay is simply to earn game currency by clicking on the screen. Pavel Durov also wrote an article praising it, saying that it shows the powerful influence of the Telegram/TON ecosystem on application developers. After Notcoin became popular and was listed on Binance and OKX at the same time, the excellent performance of its token price further attracted users' attention to the TON ecosystem.
The success of Notcoin shows that the TON ecosystem not only has the potential to integrate niche markets to form a "long tail", but its inherent high traffic advantage also has the potential to enable the ecosystem to create a flagship product. For example, Catizen, a cat game that integrates concepts such as the metaverse, GameFi, and AI, is a synthetic mini-game that also maintains a simple and easy-to-operate style, but it is not as simple as Notcoin, which results in a poor gaming experience.
In terms of incentive mechanism, Catizen adopts the play-to-airdrop model, which aims to attract players through fun and allow them to obtain additional benefits when playing games. Since the Beta test version was launched on March 19, 2024, Catizen has quickly become one of the hottest GameFi applets in the Telegram x TON ecosystem. At present, Catizen’s user base has exceeded 20 million, and it achieved a user growth of 5 million in just one week in the first week of June. Its on-chain user base has also surged to more than 1 million, with a maximum daily active user base of 3.4 million. In addition, in the second and third seasons of The Open League, Catizen has continuously topped the list of ecological applications. This small game, which is highly supported by the TON ecosystem, has the potential to become another phenomenal product after Notcoin.
Thanks to its huge user base and unique Web3 ecosystem, combined with the ease of development of Telegram bots, user-friendly interface, and smooth operation experience, the huge potential of TON (The Open Network), which is still in its early stages, has been increasingly recognized. Pantera Capital has made a huge bet and made the largest investment in history.
The current industry's attention to phenomenal products such as Notcoin and Catizen, which have tens of millions of users, has made people ignore TON's influence in a wider and more sustainable global niche market in addition to launching popular applications. For the above reasons, the TON ecosystem is undoubtedly becoming a vibrant platform. However, its long-term success still needs time to verify.