Ethereum options data highlights bears’ plan to keep ETH price below $3,600
Ethereum’s recent consolidation around $3,500 has significantly reduced market expectations for monthly options expiration above $4,000. The total monthly ETH options set to expire on June 28 on Deribit reached $3.5 billion, followed by OKX with $286 million and Binance with $142 million. However, actual results are expected to be lower, as prices above $4,000 and below $3,000 currently appear unrealistic. The put/call ratio of 0.62 indicates an imbalance between $2.2 billion in call (buy) open interest and $1.3 billion in put (sell) options. However, if the price of Ethereum remains around $3,500 at 8:00 UTC on June 28, only $257 million of these puts will be relevant. This discrepancy occurs because if ETH trades above these levels at expiry, the right to sell Ethereum at $3,300 or $3,400 will become irrelevant.
Here are the four most likely scenarios based on current price trends. Availability of June 28 call and put options contracts varies based on settlement price. The balance of potential gains for each party is as follows:
Between $3,200 and $3,400: There are 13,000 calls versus 97,200 puts. The net result was in favor of the put (sell) option, with a profit or loss of $2.8 million.
Between $3,400 and $3,600: There are 43,900 calls versus 41,600 puts. The results for calls and puts were roughly balanced.
Between $3,600 and $3,800: There are 104,200 calls versus 24,400 puts. The net result was in favor of the call (buy) option, with a profit or loss of $300 million.
Between $3,800 and $3,900: There are 141,600 calls versus 9,600 puts. The call option advantage increases to $500 million.
This back-of-the-envelope calculation assumes that calls are used primarily for long bets, while puts are used for neutral to bearish positions. Barring an unexpected spot ETF approval before June 28, the outcome is expected to be a balance around $3,500, which should be viewed as a victory for the bears, especially considering that Ethereum was trading above $3,800 two weeks ago.