Belated interpretation of macroeconomic data from June 17 to June 20. Recommended reading: ★★★

Last weekend we made a forward-looking roadmap for this week's macroeconomic big data. We were supposed to update it on time every day this week, but it was delayed due to traveling back and forth. I would like to take this opportunity to make up for it. When doing things, we should see it through to the end.

This week's data is basically the same as we expected. Due to the low weight of the data, it basically did not bring too much volatility, and the effect it brought was not even as good as the ETH ETF. But let's see if the data can give us more clues.

June 17,
20:30 US New York Fed Manufacturing Index for June, previous value -15.6, expected -13,
The data recorded -6, and the negative value of the manufacturing industry has been greatly reduced, proving that the manufacturing industry is recovering rapidly, and the recovery of the manufacturing industry often leads to an increase in economic activities, more jobs and consumption capacity, which is an obstacle to inflation control. It is bearish for the risk market, but the weight is low and the impact is small.

June 18,
01:00 Harker, a voting member of the 2026 FOMC and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, delivered a speech on the economic outlook.
Harker's speech was mainly about inflation and the job market. His views are hawkish. He believes that inflation is still too high and will not reach the Fed's target of 2% until the next two years. The job market is tight and the unemployment rate will reach 4.5% in the next two years. Overall, his views are hawkish, but the weight is not high and the impact is small.

20:30 US May retail sales monthly rate, previous value 0.00% expected 0.30%
The data recorded 0.1%, lower than expected, higher than the previous value, retail sales increased slightly, but less than expected, had little impact on May inflation, and the data weight was too small. There is a possibility of seasonal fluctuations.

21:15 U.S. May industrial output monthly rate: previous value 0.00% expected 0.20%,
The data recorded 0.9%, significantly higher than expectations and the previous value. The data showed that US industrial output increased in May and economic activity continued to strengthen. The expectation brought about is that it will affect inflation control and interest rate cut expectations, but the data has a low weight and has little impact.

22:00 Barkin, a voting member of the U.S. FOMC in 2024 and President of the Richmond Fed, delivers a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.
Ba Jin's speech followed the usual hawkish style. He mentioned that although inflation in the United States has been effectively controlled, the current economic development of the United States is still healthy under high interest rates, and mentioned the situation of a soft landing. The subtext is that the Federal Reserve has the possibility of maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time, and continued to emphasize that inflation is still facing more pressure due to increased demand. The content of the speech basically met market expectations. Although hawkish, it was moderate and did not cause much impact.


June 19,
01:00 Logan, a voting member of the U.S. FOMC in 2026 and President of the Dallas Fed, participated in a Q&A session.
Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler delivered a speech.
Morgan emphasized in his speech that the pressure of US inflation comes from energy and services, with the service industry being the focus, and the inflationary pressure of the service industry comes from problems in the job market, and the salary issue is still the focus. This is consistent with Powell's speech last week. At the same time, Morgan expressed concerns about the overheating of the economy caused by insufficient tightening of future policies. The overall speech is hawkish.
Kugler's speech also focused on inflation and inflation caused by the service industry.
The two speeches were basically hawkish in content, and the topics discussed were basically consistent with Powell's speech last week, which was in line with market expectations and did not cause a major reaction in the market.

04:30 U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 14 (10,000 barrels) Previous value -242.8 Involving June data, for record only.
The data recorded 2.264 million barrels, proving that the API data for that week recorded an increase in crude oil inventories, easing the tight supply and demand in the energy market. At the same time, it effectively lowered crude oil prices for that week, further slowing down inflationary pressure. However, because it is June data, it can basically be ignored.

22:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index in June, involving June data, the previous value is expected to be 45, for record only.
The data recorded 43, which shows that real estate developers believe that the real estate industry will cool down in the future, which will bring better expectations for inflation control. However, as data for June, it has a low weight and can be basically ignored. It is only recorded for the time being.

June 20,
19:00 UK central bank interest rate decision for June 20, previous value 5.25%, expected 5.25%,
The data recorded 5.25%. The Bank of England did not adjust the interest rate, but the market triggered a debate on the adjustment of the UK interest rate. Because the US dollar is currently the third most heavily weighted currency in the basket of currencies, when the euro cuts interest rates, people are more likely to speculate that the UK will follow suit and continue to consolidate the strength of the US dollar index. According to the current trend of the US dollar, after the data was released, the US dollar index rose slightly due to market speculation.

20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 15 (10,000 people) Previous value: 24.2, expected: 23.5%,
The data recorded 23.8%, which was higher than expected and lower than the previous value, proving that the U.S. job market improved slightly that week, but was lower than expected. The data is good for the risk market, but its data weight is low and it is June data, which has little impact on the market and will only bring a few hundred points of volatility to the market in the short term.
At the same time, the data was lower than the previous value, which made the market imagine that the market might not continue to deteriorate in June, thus reducing expectations for interest rate cuts.

23:00 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending June 14 (10,000 barrels) Currently 3.73 million barrels
The data recorded 2.547 million barrels. There was a sharp contrast between the EIA statistics and the API statistics on Wednesday. The more authoritative EIA data showed that the decline in crude oil inventories that week exceeded expectations, proving that domestic crude oil demand in the United States increased or supply decreased, which will push up crude oil prices in the short term and is not conducive to inflation control in June.

Through the data from Monday to Thursday above, we can basically understand that although the weight of this week's data is relatively low, the data still shows the existence of inflationary pressure in May. The US manufacturing and retail data began to rebound. The data showed that economic activities increased, which is not conducive to the control of inflation. At the same time, with the basically hawkish speeches of Fed officials, the overall emphasis is still on the hope of short-term interest rate cuts. It is basically in line with Powell's speech last week, and has little impact on the market in the short term. Because the market is waiting for next week's PCE data to confirm the Fed's point of view.

If the PCE data next week is consistent with the previous value, it will prove that inflationary pressure is still strong, which will indeed continue to reduce the market's optimism about interest rate cuts. On the contrary, if the inflation data weakens, although Powell and officials believe that the PCE reduction is still not the main reason for the interest rate cut, once the data shows that inflation continues to decline, the extent of the interest rate cut this year will be shifted by market expectations from one continued consolidation to two more interest rate cuts.

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