In the past week, the market volatility was full of drama, and almost all of the volatility revolved around key macro data. First, the US non-farm payroll data on June 11th exceeded expectations by a large margin, causing Bitcoin to plummet by more than 5%; then, the US CPI data on June 12th was 0.1% lower than expected, and Bitcoin rebounded sharply by more than 5%; finally, the dot plot released by the Federal Reserve on June 13th showed that the interest rate cut was lower than market expectations, and Bitcoin fell again by nearly 5%. In just three days, the market experienced two roller coaster markets, and many trend traders were repeatedly played by the main force.

Among the three key macroeconomic trading nodes, the most surprising market reaction occurred after the release of inflation data on June 12. Although the actual consumer price index (CPI) was only 0.1% lower than expected, which is within the reasonable error range, the market still regarded this small difference as a major positive, which shows that the market's follow-up to macro data has reached an almost pathological level. The market's enthusiasm for macro data also shows that in the case of lackluster crypto narrative logic, the market can only pin its hopes on liquidity easing to open up valuation space. Therefore, for leveraged traders, every window of macro data in the future needs to be very cautious.

Currently, the interest rate swap market shows that market participants expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this year with a probability of up to 90%. However, there are significant differences in market opinions on whether the first rate cut will be implemented in September. In the past week, with the release of a series of macro data, the swap market's pricing of the September rate cut has also fluctuated sharply between 50% and 70%. In the context of such unclear expectations, if the rate cut is implemented as scheduled in September, it will not only mean that the timing of policy easing is advanced, but also indicate that the intensity of the easing policy may exceed market expectations. (2-3 rate cuts) Of course, once the expectation of a rate cut in September fails, the market will also react negatively.