Saudi Arabia refuses to sign "petrodollar" agreement with the United States.
It’s been 4 days since this happened. I hadn’t intended to bring it up again, but I just discussed it with a friend and luckily I’m sharing it with you.
In fact, strictly speaking, the petrodollar agreement is not a piece of paper agreement, but an informal agreement. So Saudi Arabia’s refusal to sign is not a refusal to sign the agreement, but a rejection of the petrodollar settlement tradition that has lasted for decades.
In fact, many people on the Internet now believe that the hegemony of the US dollar is not brought by oil, and directly deny the dollar pricing system after the Bretton Woods system. Although I don’t quite understand why these people spread this idea, we can reflect on it. If we don’t rely on the petrodollar agreement, can we rely on force? Although it is true that for a period of time, the US military value was fully utilized.
Is it possible to promote the dollar hegemony globally by relying solely on military force?
It is basically impossible. Let's look back at the history. In the history of the US dollar hegemony system, if you only use force and war machines, can you force old Europe to play with you? Force Russia to play with you? This is completely impossible!
The key to getting these large groups to play along is to have a set of precisely calculated mechanisms to strangle the entire world, and then use the auxiliary force to suppress local difficulties, thereby achieving global hegemony.
So looking back, the petrodollar agreement is the foundation of the dollar hegemony after the Bretton Woods system. It gives every country in the world a reason to use the dollar.
But why did Saudi Arabia refuse to renew the petrodollar agreement? Is it because Saudi Arabia has become too powerful? Or is there someone behind it?
In fact, from the perspective of interests, the core is still the market factor. The United States' shale oil production is the highest in the world, and its oil exports have become the world's largest country. As oil suppliers, can countries such as Saudi Arabia still follow your command and continue to maintain the dollar agreement with a world-leading competitor?
Previously, the Middle East oil-producing countries did not dare to make trouble because the United States had its military strength fully utilized. After all, there were precedents. But now, the war in West Asia has not been resolved for three years, and various actions in the Middle East have proved that the United States has lost confidence in its military strength. So in this situation, more and more oil-producing countries will get rid of the petrodollar agreement.
From a business perspective, can you become friends with your market leader and abide by an agreement that benefits both parties? The answer is definitely no.
If you don't have a reasonable reason to use the US dollar, then why should I use it? So the actual depreciation of the US dollar is already the current situation, and the current high value of the US dollar index is just a contrast brought about by a basket. Of course, the same thing is that the human perspective is slow, while the world moves fast, so from a human perspective, there is still no obvious sign of recession in the short term.
However, the result that we can feel in the recent period is the interest rate cut. Once the interest rate is cut, a series of problems will be caused. I am personally looking forward to what will happen.
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