Is the bull market over?

A survey was conducted on Twitter, Weibo, and Square. The majority of respondents thought that the bull market was halfway through. The second most respondents thought that the bull market was over, and the last most respondents thought that the bull market had not come.

Whether the bull market was halfway through or not, it depends on how to define the bull market. But the fact that the bull market was over needs to be discussed.

First, the macroeconomic cycle.

Although interest rate cuts do not mean loosening the monetary policy, and even expanding the balance sheet does not mean loosening the monetary policy. However, interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansions are ultimately part of the monetary policy easing cycle.

Whether it is doing real business or speculating, this does not necessarily have to be the best environment for entrepreneurs or investors in their lifetime, as long as it is a suitable stage in the recent cycle.

Therefore, after the interest rate cut, the real economy will recover and investment will have a certain degree of relative prosperity.

As the world currency, the US dollar will also affect the world. After the interest rate cut, the interest rate on US dollar deposits in banks will drop, and US bonds will become more valuable; US bond prices will rise, and US bond yields will fall; US bonds (mainly 10-year bonds) are considered risk-free investments, and their yields will fall, so funds will gradually flow to risky assets, so the speculative market will also have a certain degree of relative prosperity.

Second, the currency market cycle.

The four-year cycle of the currency market is needless to say. There is a big bull market every four years, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025...

The way we make money is to take advantage of airdrops, secondary market speculation, etc. However, mining, exchanges, project parties...they make money by selling mining machines, transaction fees (and liquidation), issuing coins, etc.

The main body of this industry will increase the market through product entrepreneurship, creating emotions, market value management, etc.

Third, political factors.

Since Trump claimed that he would support cryptocurrency, it has received a lot of crypto donations, and then the other party also began to support the crypto market.

Trump even claimed that after being elected, he would promote Florida to become the center of crypto. His team even called for Bitcoin to be included in the U.S. balance sheet.

Trump will get more support because he supports crypto. Once he is elected, crypto should be able to get certain political support

So, the bull market is not over. It may even be affected by government factors, and there will be certain surprises.