From June 10 to 17, Bitcoin reached a high of around 70,195 and a low of nearly 65,078, with an oscillation amplitude of around 7.29%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 66,000, which will provide some support or pressure.
Important news
1. The annual rate of PPI in the United States in May was 2.2%, lower than the expected value of 2.5% and the same as the previous value of 2.2%;
2. The monthly PPI rate in May was -0.2%, 0.10% lower than expected and 0.50% lower than the previous value.
3. ANZ Bank said the US dollar will weaken in the coming months as the Federal Reserve may implement two interest rate cuts in 2024.
4. On June 13, the Fed’s interest rate meeting dot plot showed that the expected rate cuts this year were cut from 3 to 1, and the number of rate cuts next year was raised from 3 to 4;
5. Powell said: "The first rate cut will have an impact on the economy. What is important is the entire interest rate path, not just the first rate cut. Once inflation is controlled, interest rates can be lowered; ultimately, we believe that interest rates will need to fall to continue to support the target."
6. As the Federal Reserve expressed that it would not rush to relax monetary policy, U.S. money market funds had weekly inflows of approximately US$28 billion, bringing their size to a record high of US$6.12 trillion.
The Jackson Hole central bank symposium is held in July and August, and Fed officials have historically used speeches at this forum to signal major shifts in the Fed's plans or thinking.
Long term
The on-chain chips show that the new power has begun to decline, and of course the destruction and selling have also begun to decline. The market may enter a blank period during this period.
ETFs are relatively sluggish. At present, in terms of off-market capital inflows, it may take some time before they have a particularly active influx.
The total spot selling pressure shows that the selling pressure has temporarily returned to a relatively low point this year. Of course, it is not the lowest point yet. It is expected that the main power of funds in the future will come from the market. The funds in the market will continue to buy, and then the selling pressure will slowly decrease, returning to a moment of squeezing and then upward.
If conditions permit, you can adopt a low-long strategy.
In the medium term
BTC's liquidity supply determines the new buyer sentiment in the market, and is currently in a state of slowing growth. It may still take some time to repair the state of liquidity supply.
In all previous changes, usually, the market will be in a better state under the condition of ensuring sufficient liquidity supply. Only addresses with more than 10k in the market still maintain good accumulation, and the overall enthusiasm is not high. It may be necessary to allow for a longer accumulation time at present to make room for subsequent growth.
The circulation ratio of ETH in exchanges has decreased, and the exchange has been converted into a relatively safe-haven structure with more BTC in circulation. It may be necessary to increase the holding time and replace more space.
The network sentiment has entered a negative value, and the overall sentiment is in a stage of decline and adjustment. If the network sentiment is not corrected, the adjustment time may be prolonged.
In the short term
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the neutral area. The risk of derivatives is moderate.
As expected last week, ETH showed a volatile adjustment. The risk factor was in the green area last week and is now in the neutral area. However, judging from the risk factor, the market may continue to volatile this week.
Option trading volume has slightly decreased, and the proportion of put options is low. Derivative trading volume is low.
The short-term holder cost line is around 63K. The continuous volatility of the market also shows that panic sentiment is unlikely to cause a sharp drop in the market at the current price unless there are external black swan conditions.
The overall spot selling pressure is in a state of large outflow and accumulation, and the selling pressure in the market is relatively low. The global purchasing power is in an outflow state, and the purchasing power of stablecoins remains the same.
Off-chain transaction data shows a willingness to buy at 65,000 and a willingness to sell at 70,000.
End of the article
The traditional money market continues to accumulate and has not flowed to riskier products. Many people are concerned about when this part of the funds will flow into risky assets, which include stocks, gold and bitcoin, and are also the latter part of the bull market that many people are looking forward to.
The monetary policy tightening led by the Federal Reserve will begin in early 2022, and easing may begin in the second half of 2024. At present, the market's attention is focused on whether the interest rate will be cut once or twice this year. If it is twice, the interest rate will be cut in September, and the market may speculate in advance in August. If it is in October, it may be speculated from September to October.
The CPI data for the next two months will be critical, as inflation has most likely reached a turning point. The inflation data for the next two months is particularly important, as it determines whether the market rhythm will be early or late.
Although the market is relatively sluggish now, it is entering a slow recovery and accumulation phase. Market sentiment is still in a neutral area and there is no panic. The current short-term holder cost line is still around 63K, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate or fall back to the price near the short-term holder cost line. The short-term low-long strategy is more effective.
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