【1/2】The Fed's intensive speeches are all hawkish, and the market believes in the data and sings the opposite tune; the S&P NASDAQ hits a new high, and there may be a big fluctuation this week!
BTC volatility continues to decline, and high-net-worth investors are still increasing their holdings. Who is selling?
1. Fundamentals
1. The divergence between the Fed and the market in the macro aspect is becoming more and more obvious. No more data will be released this week, and the Fed officials are speaking intensively, which may cause large fluctuations.
Since the interest rate decision, Fed officials have successively delivered speeches since last Friday. The first two officials to appear on the stage are a hawk and a dove: the president of the Cleveland Fed and the president of the Chicago Fed, who originally had very different positions, are hawkish. Other officials at the weekend are similar, basically expressing that they will wait for a rate cut and need more economic data.
The market openly sings the opposite tune of the Fed officials, and no longer believes in the speeches and guidance of the Fed officials on interest rates. It bets that the Fed will yield to the data and cut interest rates earlier, and the S&P NASDAQ hits a new high.
2. In the short term, there are no bullish or bearish factors in the currency market. The currency market continues to pull back and walk out of the independent market, which is more of a stock game.
BTC failed to follow the S&P NASDAQ to a new high, and the altcoins were slaughtered, but the market did not panic. The fear and greed index was 74, and it continued to be in a greedy state. It further shows that the investment style of this bull market has changed. Investors are optimistic about BTC, while altcoins may be seriously divided. Some altcoins may not be able to get out of the bull market. The returns in the entire bull market are worse than those of the big cake. It is necessary to choose altcoins with caution.
2. On-chain data
1. On-chain data shows that the new power has begun to decline, and the selling has begun to decline. The market may continue to maintain a low volatility state.
High-net-worth investors with more than 10,000 coins have maintained an increase in holdings, and the overall enthusiasm is not high. At the same time, the selling pressure has returned to the relative low point of this year; while small-scale investors have continued to reduce their holdings.
2. Although the BTC price fell below US$66,000, there is still no sign of selling in the dense chip area above the price. The chips in the most dense range of 66,000~66,500 increased by more than 100,000 chips again last week, accumulating more than 520,000 chips. This shows that investors who are losing money at the current price did not stop loss and leave the market, but instead entered a state of hoarding coins.
