BTC's weekly chart shows a short-term bearish signal. The ordinary K-line closed with a real engulfing pattern last week, while the average K-line (Heikin Ashi) showed its first negative line since the 56,000 rebound.

Looking back at the historical weekly average K trend, if we use the EMA100 weekly moving average as a judgment of the relative high or low price, we can get the following figure:

When BTC fluctuates at a lower position for more than 1 month, the average K-line shows a second positive line, which often corresponds to BTC prices approaching the bottom of the bear market;

When BTC fluctuates at a higher position for more than 1 month, the average K-line shows a second negative line, which often corresponds to BTC prices approaching the top of the bull market;

The key logic of judgment is not the average K showing a negative line, but the need to see that the price has fluctuated for a long time at a higher position relative to the EMA100 weekly moving average, followed by multiple average K negative lines.

Obviously, this logic can only determine the relative top and bottom, not the absolute top and bottom. The bull market in 2021 still reached a new high after similar signals appeared, but if it is used to determine the rebound or correction in the short term of 1-2 months, it still has a very good accuracy rate.

Therefore, the current BTC market may face a potential deep correction.

Despite this, I still believe that 73,800 will not be the top of the bull market, and 86,000 is the most reasonable peak. That is to say, even if there is a first deep correction similar to the previous rounds of bull markets in June and July, BTC may still reach a new high at the end of the year. $BTC