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Weekly Review
This week, from June 10 to June 17, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $70,195 and the lowest was close to $65,078, with a fluctuation range of about 7.29%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 66,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 870,000 pieces;
64000-68000: about 1.4 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 90%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Important news
Economic News
The annual rate of PPI in the United States in May was 2.2%, lower than the expected value of 2.5% and the same as the previous value of 2.2%;
The monthly PPI rate in May was -0.2%, 0.10% lower than expected and 0.50% lower than the previous value.
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 242,000, higher than the expected value of 225,000 and higher than the previous value of 229,000.
ANZ said the dollar will weaken in the coming months as the Federal Reserve is likely to implement two interest rate cuts in 2024.
On June 13, the Fed's dot plot for the interest rate meeting showed that the expected rate cuts this year were cut from three to one, and the number of interest rate cuts next year was raised from three to four;
Among the 19 members, 4 members believed that there should be no interest rate cut in 2024, 7 members believed that there would be one interest rate cut, and 8 members believed that there would be two interest rate cuts.
Powell said: "The first rate cut will have an impact on the economy. What is important is the entire interest rate path, not just the first rate cut. Once inflation is controlled, interest rates can be lowered; ultimately, we believe that interest rates will need to fall to continue to support the target."
As the Federal Reserve expressed that it would not rush to ease monetary policy, U.S. money market funds saw inflows of about $28 billion that week, bringing their size to a record $6.12 trillion.
The annual Jackson Hole central bank symposium is held in August, and Fed officials have historically used speeches at this forum to signal major shifts in the Fed's plans or thinking.
Encrypted ecological news
Gensler said it expects the S1 application for the spot ETH ETF to be approved sometime in the summer.
When Gary Gensler, director of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), was directly asked whether ETH is a commodity at a U.S. budget hearing on Thursday, Gensler did not answer yes or no, but insisted on the agency’s uncertain position on the asset.
When asked if ETH is a commodity, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Director Rostin Behnam responded: “Yes.”
JPMorgan Chase said in a research report that the net inflow of digital assets has reached US$12 billion so far this year. If funds continue at the same pace, this figure may grow to US$26 billion by the end of the year. The bank believes that the digital wallets of exchanges may shift significantly to the new spot BTC ETF.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
On-chain chip destruction and addition
US Crypto ETF Net Positions
Total spot selling pressure
Total spot selling pressure
(The following figure shows the destruction and addition of chips on the chain)
The on-chain chips show that the new power has begun to decline, and of course the destruction and selling have also begun to decline. The market may enter a blank period during this period.
(Figure below shows US crypto ETF net positions)
ETFs are relatively sluggish, and it may take some time for off-market funds to flow in.
They haven’t been particularly aggressive in their influx.
(Picture below: Illiquidity Whale)
Illiquidity whales are still buying.
(Figure below: Total spot selling pressure)
The total spot selling pressure shows that the selling pressure has temporarily returned to a relatively low point this year. Of course, it is not the lowest point yet.
It is expected that the main funding force in the future will come from the market. The funds in the market will continue to buy, and then the selling pressure will slowly decrease, returning to a moment of squeezing and then upward.
If conditions permit, you can adopt a low-long strategy.
Mid-term exploration
Liquidity Supply
Accumulation trend points
ETH exchange circulation ratio
Positive sentiment on the Internet
(Figure below: Liquidity Supply)
Yellow line: Liquidity supply
Blue area: Liquidity supply change rate
BTC’s liquidity supply, which determines new buyer sentiment in the market, is currently in a state of slowing growth.
It may still take some time to repair the liquidity supply status.
In all previous changes, the market will usually be in a better state as long as sufficient liquidity supply is guaranteed.
(The following figure shows the accumulation trend)
Only addresses with >10k in the market are still accumulating funds, and the overall enthusiasm is not high.
Perhaps the current accumulation time should be extended to make room for subsequent growth.
(The following figure shows the proportion of ETH in circulation on exchanges)
The circulation ratio of ETH in exchanges has decreased, and the exchange has been converted into a relatively safe-haven structure with more BTC circulation.
It may be necessary to increase the holding time and replace more space.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
Online sentiment has entered a negative value, and the overall sentiment is in a stage of decline and adjustment.
It is possible that the adjustment time will be prolonged as the online sentiment has not been corrected.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the neutral area. The risk of derivatives is moderate.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
Consistent with last week's expectations, ETH showed a volatile adjustment. The risk factor was in the green area last week and is now in the neutral area. However, judging from the risk factor, the market may continue to volatile this week.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Options trading volume has declined slightly and the put option ratio is low.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volumes were at low levels.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility fell slightly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The current market situation is basically the same as last week.
The short-term holder cost line is around 63K. The continuous market volatility also shows that panic sentiment (orange line) is unlikely to continue to rise at the current price level and cause a sharp drop in the market unless there are external black swan conditions.
Currently, both positive sentiment (blue line) and panic sentiment (orange line) are at low levels.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: The overall outflow is accumulating, and the selling pressure in the market is relatively low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
BTC exchange net positions are in a state of large outflow accumulation.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH exchange net positions are in a state of large outflow accumulation.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at the moment.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power as a whole is in a state of outflow, and the purchasing power of stablecoins remains the same.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
Currently, the purchasing power of the three continents of America, Asia and Europe is in a state of outflow. This week, we intercept the purchasing power of America with a higher weight for observation. When the purchasing power of America is in a state of outflow, the market price is in a volatile trend and is very likely to reach the cost line of short-term holders.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDT exchange net positions remained flat.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 64,000 and 65,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000, 71000, 72000 and 73000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 65,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000, 71000, 72000 and 73000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 65,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000, 71000, 72000 and 73000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
Powell also said the latest CPI data was encouraging and suggested that the latest CPI data may not be fully reflected in monetary policy makers' latest forecasts.
This week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting did not loosen the floodgates, and the Federal Reserve conservatively stated that it would not rush to relax monetary policy. The size of U.S. money market funds reached a record high of $6.12 trillion from $6.09 trillion a week ago.
The traditional money market continues to accumulate and has not flowed to riskier products. Many people are concerned about when this part of the funds will flow into risky assets, which include stocks, gold and bitcoin, and are also the latter part of the bull market that many people are looking forward to.
The monetary policy led by the Federal Reserve will shift from tightening to easing, with tightening beginning in early 2022 and easing possibly beginning in the second half of 2024.
Currently, the market's attention is focused on whether the interest rate will be cut once or twice this year. If it is twice, the interest rate will be cut in September and the market may speculate in advance in August. If it is in October, the market may speculate from September to October.
The CPI data for the next two months will be crucial, and inflation has most likely reached a turning point.
The inflation data for the next two months will be particularly important, as it will determine whether the market moves early or late.
On-chain long-term insights:
The number of new chips on the chain has dropped significantly;
Crypto ETF net positions show an increase in net outflows, and OTC funds are relatively sluggish;
Illiquid whales are still buying;
Spot selling pressure has returned to this year's low level.
Market setting:
Entering the slow repair and accumulation stage, a relatively short-term low-long strategy is more effective.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The growth of on-site liquidity has slowed down and we need time to wait;
Currently, only 10k addresses have a certain accumulation;
The market tends to be a safe-haven structure with more BTC in circulation;
Online sentiment is in the adjustment stage.
Market setting:
Adjustment
The venue is in the repair and adjustment stage, so you may need more patience.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the neutral area and the risk is moderate.
The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange showed a large amount of accumulated outflows, and the selling pressure was relatively low.
Global purchasing power as a whole is in a state of outflow, and the purchasing power of stablecoins remains flat.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the 65,000 price level, and a willingness to sell at the 70,000 price level.
The probability that it will not fall below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 90%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Market setting:
Market sentiment is still in a neutral zone, and there is no panic. The current short-term holder cost line is still around 63K, and the market purchasing power has been greatly lost. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate or fall back to the price near the short-term holder cost line.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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