1. ahr999: 3 stars for practicality in bull market, 5 stars in bear market
The bull market is not very accurate. As the market value of BTC increases, the highest point of each cycle of the indicator has fallen compared to the previous high, and it is impossible to determine the top range, but it is very suitable for fixed investment and bottom fishing (<1.2). In the bull market, it is mainly a good time to buy when it falls below 1.2.
2. Rainbow chart: 2 stars for practicality in bull market, 4 stars for practicality in bear market
It is also about looking at the big trend. It is more accurate in the bear market, and the highest point of each cycle in the bull market will fall back. Like the ahr999 indicator, as the volume continues to grow, the indicator fluctuations gradually decrease.
3, 1yr hodl wove: 4 stars in bull market, 3 stars in bear market
It is a very useful indicator for looking at bull and bear trends, but it is still a trend. The continuous decrease in the proportion of accounts holding coins for more than one year is often accompanied by the influx of a large number of retail investors in the bull market, and the market value continues to increase. It is an indicator to look at the enthusiasm of BTC investment.
4. Pi cycle top indicator: 3 stars in bear market, 5 stars in bull market. It is a relatively accurate indicator that can quantify the timing of escaping the top in the bull market. By comparing the 111days moving average (MA) of BTC price with the 350 days MA*2, when 111MA exceeds 2*350MA, it represents overheating, indicating that the medium-term increase in the past four months is too high. This indicator accurately predicted the top position in the three historical BTC cycles, which is worthy of attention. It is logically consistent with the trend of the short-term and medium-term MA90 and MA5 golden cross, and the purpose is the same. When the medium-term increase far exceeds the long-term, it means overheating. In a bear market, since MA350 must be greater than MA111, it has no reference value.
5. MVRV Z-score: 3 stars in bull market, 4 stars in bear market
Look at the difference between intrinsic value and actual market value. The actual market value is price*number, and interior value is the real equilibrium price calculated by the number of BTC in actual circulation (excluding those that have not been circulated for many years) and the average BTC transaction price. Zscore uses statistical methods to determine whether the fluctuation between the two indicators (short-term market sentiment) is too large. But similarly, due to the continuous increase in the market value of BTC, the fluctuation range of the indicator is gradually decreasing. The highest was 9.1 on December 17, 2017, and the highest was 7.1 on February 19, 2021. The 17-year cycle is very accurate, and the 21-year cycle is not the highest point. It is a relative high point. If it is touched, it is a good warning that the high point is coming.
6. USD premium rate: 4 stars in bear market, 4 stars in bull market
In a bull market, the USDT OTC premium rate is mostly positive, which means that OTC funds are entering the market. On the contrary, in a bear market, the premium rate is usually negative. Therefore, after the bull market has escaped, it is best to convert BTC into legal currency instead of USDT (in winter storage, USDT will further depreciate with a negative premium. It is best to wait until the end of winter to convert funds into USDT and prepare to enter the market)
7. Annualized USDT lending rate: 3 stars in a bear market, 4 stars in a bull market. The normal USDT lending rate is roughly equivalent to the short-term U.S. Treasury bond rate, which means that there was no speculation using leveraged loans to buy coins at the time. Before this round of halving, the market launch after October 20, 23 coincided with the launch of the annualized USDT lending rate, reaching a maximum of 0.18% daily interest on March 13, and an annualized interest rate of 65%, a crazy level.
8. Changes in the expected U.S. Treasury bond interest rate: 5 stars in a bear market, 5 stars in a bull market. As a barometer of the world economy, any changes in the expected interest rate will directly affect the price of risky assets. For example, when the expectation of an interest rate hike appeared in October 2021, the prices of all risky assets fell. In March 2023, with the bankruptcy of U.S. banks, the expectation of interest rate cuts once again promoted a new round of bull market in risky assets. Relatively speaking, long-term stable high interest rates (after July 23) can continue to increase the valuation of risky assets as long as the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists. #BTC