Since the FOMC meeting in June, BTC's decline has gradually changed from the previous shrinking decline to a large-volume decline. The color and thickness of the K-line in the figure correspond to its trading volume.
Although the recent three declines have been large-volume, they are not as large as the previous shrinking declines. It can be seen that there are funds in the market that are actively taking over.
As a result, the turnover rate has gradually increased. Last night, BTC briefly fell below 66,000 and then ushered in a large-volume decline. Then, due to the positive rumors of ETH, it returned to 66,000, but because this wave of rebound is overall shrinking, the market is still bearish.
The focus of the weekend is whether there will be a small-level trend under low liquidity conditions. This often represents the sentiment of funds in the market. In the past three weekends, BTC has maintained extremely low volatility and continued to rise slightly throughout the weekend. It was not until the opening of the U.S. stock market on Monday that liquidity was gradually restored;
In general, funds in the market have always maintained a certain demand as buyers, and have been working hard to absorb the FOMC meeting in the past week. OTC fund supply;
To prevent misunderstanding, in my opinion, on-site funds refer to traditional currency circle funds traded through stablecoins, while OTC funds generally refer to funds traded by institutions or professional traders through ETFs and US dollar trading pairs (BTCUSD), and miners are essentially OTC funds because they only supply the market;
If the weekend remains volatile with shrinking volume, it means that the on-site funds are still emotionally stable, and the main sellers come from OTC funds, so even if there is a decline, it will only occur during the opening of the US stock market during the week;
If a small-scale short trend emerges over the weekend, it means that the sentiment of on-site funds has been shaken. After the opening of next week, the two forces will no longer confront each other, but will sell in unison, which may cause greater selling pressure on the market;
Therefore, in the short term, the conditions for stabilizing prices and achieving a rebound are that on-site demand is amplified and OTC funds stop selling. Specifically, on the K-line, it is the physical closing price of a large-volume positive line, breaking through the local rebound high on the left, which is currently around 67,300.
In addition, if the price is below 66,200, there is still a potential bearish trend brewing, which makes shorting against this position (66,200~67,300) a trading plan with relatively high profit and loss.