Data at 2 a.m. on the 14th showed that it did not send a short signal, but was positive for the market. It is worth noting that yesterday was the 613 delivery day, and the price of Bitcoin rose from the lowest of $66,051 to $69,999, an increase of 6%. It then fell back to around $67,500.
The zkSync project has caused dissatisfaction in the community because the project owner "hoarded" a large amount of assets, resulting in the delay of the launch. As the community's dissatisfaction intensified, zkSync decided to delay the release, which may bring greater pressure to the launch of zkSync. This "hoarding" behavior has both advantages and disadvantages, and whether to sell has become the focus of zkSync traders.
The terminal interest rate refers to the highest or lowest interest rate level that the Federal Reserve is expected to reach during a round of interest rate hikes or cuts. This level marks the appropriate monetary policy stance considered by the Federal Reserve and indicates the end of the interest rate hike or cut cycle.
Key factors affecting terminal interest rates include inflation, economic growth, employment conditions and the global economic environment. The current market decline is partly due to the positive data, which temporarily dispelled the expected speculation of the Fed's interest rate cut.
Although Powell hinted at the last press conference that "rate cuts will be considered if the unemployment rate drops to 4%, the actual situation has not reached this level in nearly a year. Recent data showed that the unemployment rate was 4%, which was not significantly higher than expected, so the Fed's focus on rate cuts was not prominent.
In addition, news is brewing that the Democrats want to push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible, but the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the short term is not high.
The market is very concerned about when the interest rate will be cut. According to the terminal interest rate, as of September 18, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 48.3%, which is higher than the probability of an unchanged interest rate (between 525-550). Therefore, September may be an important turning point.
Will June be a bloody battle?
June is likely to be a very volatile month. The options market within the futures market showed strong bullish sentiment, especially on the 628 exercise date. The total options position on that date was as high as $6.564 billion, of which about 67% were call options with a total value of $4.454 billion.
