Both macro windows were implemented yesterday. The CPI data was lower than expected, which directly led to a reversal of the market. The end of the evening meeting and the implementation of the dot plot caused the US dollar index to reverse and poured cold water on the currency market, which was basically equivalent to doing nothing. As for the dot plot, the dot plot shows that there is only one 25-point interest rate cut window this year, which postpones this year's interest rate cut node to next year. However, this is not the final decision of the Federal Reserve, but the idea of officials. There is still a chance, so subsequent economic data is still very important. There will be another dot plot implementation in September, but the expectation of the first interest rate cut starting in September has been weakened, which is obviously lower than market expectations, so the market has been on a roller coaster ride.
Bitcoin ETF had a total net inflow of 100 million USD and 1,478 Bitcoins on June 12. As can be seen from the picture, everyone is buying, but not a lot. Here is the data:
US Spot ETF = 862k BTC
Mt. Gox Trustee = 141k BTC
US Government = 207,000 BTC
All exchanges = 2.3 million BTC
Miners (excluding Patoshi) = 706k BTC
These large entities together account for 27% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin. Considering the large scale, the largest supply point is still in Mentougou, and miners and ETFs will not suddenly have huge supply.
As for the spot-futures arbitrage I mentioned the other day, I need to correct it with data here. The net short positions in CME futures have indeed increased a lot. Perhaps it is the hedge funds that are helping them do these things. Through the purchase of ETFs, but the price does not rise, and judging from the frequent door drawing, institutions have indeed been hedging in the past half month.
The loan positions of the founder of Curve on 5 addresses with CRV as collateral have all fallen below the liquidation line. Currently, the positions on the main address 0x7a1 are being liquidated. Currently, 5 accounts in 5 protocols have lent out 95.7 million US dollars of stablecoins (mainly crvUSD) with 140 million US dollars of CRV as collateral. The liquidation of the collateral has caused a sharp drop in prices, but in fact, he didn’t lose much. First, his collateral CRV has 0 cost, and second, the loan is a stablecoin, so it’s just a disguised cut of other holders. At present, there has been no other serial stampede, and CRVUSD has not been decoupled, so it has not affected his funds. It’s too bad.
According to on-chain data, the balance of Bitcoin wallets on exchanges has reached a four-year low in recent times. More than 100,000 bitcoins have been withdrawn from exchanges recently, but a large part of them should still come from ETFs. Of course, this data can also prove that large investors are definitely in an accumulation state, which will not affect short-term prices. However, after a period of repeated wash-outs and shocks, when enough chips have accumulated, the time will come and the second wave of bull market will truly come.
Ethereum's second-layer network ZKSYNC has attracted a lot of attention for the details of the airdrop. Too many people did not get the airdrop, and they are anxious. Many project parties have begun to form alliances to protect their rights. This project has been delayed for so long, and there are so many bad things going on. Don't expect it. Let's see how it goes when it goes online.
Market Interpretation
The result was revealed last night. For spot holders, nothing happened. They woke up to the same situation, except that they felt a little happy before 12 o'clock yesterday. In fact, if the weekly line goes like this, it is not bad, but we can't be overly bullish, because the top is still lowering, and there may be a market with a painting gate in the future. In fact, the market in early June is still good, and there is a high probability of wide fluctuations in the future, ranging from 72,000 to 65,000.
The second cake is weak and helpless.
In the copycat sector, the large VC project IO has set a good VC example for the market. It has almost doubled since its launch. In the bull market, if you don’t take over, I have the money to do it myself. The project must be a good project, because at least it has been implemented. Some people have even begun to benchmark it against NVIDIA of WEB3. The current market value is close to 600 million, and FDV is 4.8 billion. Different people have different opinions.
Let’s talk about MEME coin. It has started to weaken recently because VC coins have come out for testing. If you come up with a few more junk VC coins, MEME will rise again.
After the CPI data came out yesterday, in addition to IO, there were still some strong currencies, such as LPT, NOT, and the big monster INJ, two strong dealers and one MEME. The strong dealers will be reflected when the market is bad.
Today's Bitcoin Fear Greed Index: 70 (Greed)
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