The BTC price surged towards the $70,000 mark yesterday, a day after falling to $66,000 amid macroeconomic uncertainty, miner selling pressure, and outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Moderately positive inflation data in the U.S. created more favorable conditions for risk assets, including Bitcoin, pushing the S&P 500 to a record high on June 12.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% year-on-year, driven primarily by a 3.6% drop in energy prices. While above the Fed’s target, the reading was below market expectations, suggesting the Fed could cut interest rates in September. As a result, U.S. Treasuries came under selling pressure, with the two-year Treasury yield falling to a 10-week low of 4.68%.
To determine whether Bitcoin’s June 12 surge was just a temporary optimism sparked by macroeconomic data, it is crucial to assess whether miner and ETF outflows will persist. Whether investors are optimistic about inflation or considering the possibility of a recession, Bitcoin's trajectory toward $72,000 will largely depend on institutional inflows.
Currently, the market is preparing for the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve, which will be held later in the day. At that time, the decision on interest rate adjustments and comments on the economy by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be crucial to market sentiment.
The latest estimates from CME Group data show that market bets on the timing of rate cuts are changing, with the current bet rate for the September FOMC meeting close to 70%.
