Today should be the beginning of the current volatile market choosing its final direction!


You can see from the figure below that after the past two FOMC meetings, the price of BTC has rebounded. This is related to the dovish attitude of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate committee. Jokingly speaking, the main force supporting BTC in this period of volatility is actually the Federal Reserve. However, there is an old saying that “three times is better than three times”. A rule that is effective twice in a row will often fail the third time.


Just like the first two times I made all in on Shanzhai, I made more than 10 times the money, but the third time I made all in, I was completely screwed and stuck until now

Therefore, I still hold a cautious attitude towards tomorrow's CPI data and the FOMC meeting at 2 a.m. the next day.


A big reason for this is that the non-farm data released last Friday was much higher than expected. Although everyone believes that the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is suspected of being fake, my focus is that regardless of whether it is fake or not, the size of this data and the number itself represents the attitude of the elites above.


If I have the ability to control the statistics, I will certainly adjust the data in the direction I want. Therefore, the non-agricultural data that far exceeded expectations may itself represent a certain willingness not to cut interest rates too early.


Therefore, I will not simply use the price performance of BTC after the previous two FOMC meetings to predict the market after this meeting. I would rather look at the market from the perspective of the market.


Whether the daily closing can be maintained above 67200 determines the final direction of this oscillation range!


Above this price, I will continue to be bullish

Below this price, I will remain bearish for a long time

The closer the shock converges to the end, the more you have to be a fence-sitter.





The market is preparing for the next big bull market!


At this stage, the cryptocurrency market's expectations for the future are mainly affected by changes in monetary policy, and the market seems to be in the preparation stage for the next bull market. Zhou Lele, deputy chief operating officer of Shengli Securities, said that as prices rise, the inflow of over-the-counter capital (ETF) and the stable holding strategy on the market may be resonating, which will become a key factor in the upward trend of Bitcoin prices and the recovery of volatility. The core concerns of the future market include:


1. When will the Federal Reserve start cutting interest rates, and the difference in expectations about the timing of the rate cut due to the 300,000 non-farm unemployment figures.


2. After the Ethereum ETF was approved, the old Defi projects revived and the market's overly pessimistic expectations for the Ethereum ETF.


3. The expectation gap between the shift in sentiment regarding Bitcoin ETF inflows and the fundamentals of the virtual asset market.


4. The expectation gap between macroeconomic trends and actual market reactions.





As other countries around the world continue to cut interest rates, it will be difficult for the United States to ignore this, and Bitcoin seems to be digesting the impact of the Fed's rate cut step by step. Anonymous cryptocurrency analyst Gumshoe posted on the X platform that Bitcoin had pulled back several times before this year's FOMC meeting. Bitcoin's pullbacks during the four meetings this year reached 10%, 11%, 10% and 4% respectively, but soon reversed the trend shortly afterwards.

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