The recent market has been falling continuously, which is indeed a bit beyond expectations. As I said before, there is no market that only falls and never rises. A rebound is just a matter of time. According to previous predictions, this wave of decline is more like a second retracement at the weekly level. After the retracement, a more comfortable upward trend should be launched. After all, news about the Ethereum ETF hype should soon come out. When the market falls, the information we see is the news that the giant whales are transferring the products to the exchange, causing you to panic and sell at a loss!

Let's first look at the data of BTC. It is basically the same as before, with a wide range of fluctuations between 66,000 and 72,000. As long as there is no major negative sentiment to hit the price, there will be no big problem. It will still maintain fluctuations.

BTC's ETF data, first of all, this data cannot influence the changes in the market for the time being, it can only capture the emotions of American investors. In recent times, there has been little increase in holdings and it has tended to be flat. Everyone is paying attention to the trend of BTC in the early morning Beijing time on weekdays, especially after 4 o'clock, the trading volume is very obvious.

Bitcoin said yesterday that the next 4-hour level of 66,000 is very critical. If this position can be maintained and not effectively broken, then the upward mode will be quickly entered. If it is effectively broken, it will enter a period of shock adjustment in the short term. However, no matter how it goes in the short term, it will not affect the explosive market at the end of the year.

As the market falls, the copycats suffer. You can take this opportunity to invest in some high-quality copycats.

Now BTC is still more affected by the US macro data information, such as the CPI on the evening of the 12th and the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on the early morning of the 13th. (The interest rate in June is unchanged, mainly depending on Bao’s speech)

If the CPI data is positive and Powell's speech is also positive, it should hit 72,000 again. Otherwise, let's see if there will be a big break at 66,000, so be cautious in the next two days.

Not long ago, the SEC chairman said that it might take some time for the S-1/S-3 of the ETH spot ETF to be approved, as shown in the figure below.

I don’t know if it will be delayed until the end of the month or even the next month.

The current price of ETH is indeed cost-effective. Of course, it still depends on the performance of BTC, that is, the macroeconomic situation in the next two days. The best scenario is that both CPI and the speech are good for the market, and then next week the hype about the approval of S-1/S-3 of ETH spot ETFs will slowly begin. Then there is still room for fun. It is still possible to expect copycats, especially those with good flexibility, otherwise it will be very tiring.

I believe that the sluggish market is only short-lived, and this opportunity is also a good opportunity to build positions one after another. It may be a bit tiring, but I believe that this year will definitely be a better year than 2022 and 2023. This year's big market may come after this wave of correction. Let us wait and see!

There should be relatively large fluctuations around the release of data at 8:30 tonight, and the more critical thing should be the signal released by the Federal Reserve after 2 o'clock tomorrow morning. Personally, I expect that the market has already responded in advance, so the corresponding rebound probability is still relatively large. Even if there is still a decline, there is no need to be afraid! It is also a good idea to place an order at a low level and try to connect the pin!

The decline will eventually end, and a rebound or even a reversal will eventually come. Don't fall before dawn! I believe that this year 24 is the year when the bull market begins. Hold on firmly and wait for the flowers to bloom!

When will the copycat bull market come?

1. The current inflow of stablecoins is equivalent to the bull market in 2021. If there is no large amount of new inflows, it will be enough to support a coin price equivalent to that in 2021.

2. The total market value of altcoins is now slightly lower than that of the previous round, but considering the current clever low circulation and high release of altcoins, the difficulty of rising will be greater than in 21 years - you buy in order to double your money, and he makes a hundred times the profit on the spot when he sells.

3. Overall, ETF buying is based on sentiment rather than substance. The size of the cryptocurrency market is already very large, and the impact of the ETF's hundreds of billions of funds in a few months on the overall market trading volume is far less than that of Grayscale back then.

4. The large-scale external money injection has not come yet, but it will come; therefore, there will be a violent copycat bull market, but it may not be as sudden as it is now. The ideal situation is that the starting price is lower and lower, the lower the better.

5. Perhaps one scenario is that the price of cottage is low enough, and combined with the future interest rate cut, it will trigger a surge at some point in the future. The market is preparing for the next wave of bull market!

At this stage, the cryptocurrency market's expectations for the future are mainly affected by changes in monetary policy, and the market seems to be in the preparation stage for the next bull market. Zhou Lele, deputy chief operating officer of Shengli Securities, said that as prices rise, the inflow of over-the-counter capital (ETF) and the stable holding strategy on the market may be resonating, which will become a key factor in the upward trend of Bitcoin prices and the recovery of volatility. The core concerns of the future market include:

1. When will the Federal Reserve start cutting interest rates, and the difference in expectations about the timing of the rate cut due to the 300,000 non-farm unemployment figures.

2. After the Ethereum ETF was approved, the old Defi projects revived and the market's overly pessimistic expectations for the Ethereum ETF.

3. The shift in sentiment regarding Bitcoin ETF inflows and the expected gap between the fundamentals of the virtual asset market.

4. The expectation gap between macroeconomic trends and actual market reactions.

Overall, the correction in the cryptocurrency market this week did not affect the overall positive trend of the market. Some market observers pointed out that some positive signs during the sell-off may indicate a rapid economic recovery. In fact, Fed Chairman Powell revealed at the Stanford Business School Forum two months ago that most FOMC members believed that it would be appropriate to lower the policy interest rate at some point this year. For this reason, the Fed still needs greater confidence to ensure that inflation can be sustainably reduced to the target level of 2%. There are risks in cutting interest rates too early or too late. It is too early to judge whether the recent inflation data is just a temporary fluctuation.

On the other hand, as other countries around the world continue to cut interest rates, it will be difficult for the United States to ignore this, and Bitcoin seems to be digesting the impact of the Fed's rate cut step by step. Anonymous cryptocurrency analyst Gumshoe posted on the X platform that Bitcoin had pulled back several times before this year's FOMC meeting. As shown in the figure below, Bitcoin's pullbacks during the four meetings this year reached 10%, 11%, 10% and 4% respectively, but they quickly reversed their trend shortly afterwards.

This decline is a good opportunity to buy on the dip! #cpi #美联储利率决策即将公布 $BTC