The Fed has not cut interest rates for a long time. Does it have any trump cards to play?

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Americans' consumption habits are the biggest confidence of the Fed. Even if the CPI remains above 3%, consumption remains strong. However, whether this abnormal consumption pattern can continue in the long run is worrying. The recent increase in consumer loan defaults is accumulating risks.

The Fed faces a dilemma: cutting interest rates may trigger a surge in inflation, while not cutting interest rates will slow economic growth and exacerbate debt problems. The current market generally expects that the Fed may end its balance sheet reduction in the third quarter and cut interest rates in the fourth quarter. The Fed will not let the market easily predict the time of the interest rate cut to prevent the market from reacting in advance.

Conclusion: In the next few months, the Fed's decision will have a significant impact on the market. Investors should pay attention to consumption data and the Fed's policy trends and adjust their investment strategies.

#美联储 #降息放水 #消费市场 #经济分析