Traditionally, the crypto market is starting to feverishly ahead of the FOMC meeting, which will be held tomorrow. Moreover, consumer inflation data will be released tomorrow. A very important day, which logically should determine the further vector of market movement. But this no longer works at the current stage. Below we will explain why👇
As in previous times, the market begins to include negativity in the price in advance. And regardless of the speech of the head of the Fed, the price begins to rise the very next day after the meeting.
As you remember, at every Fed meeting, its head, Jerome Powell, spins like a frying pan, brushing aside pressing issues and repeating like a mantra that the monetary policy cycle will continue for some time.
Only the market no longer believes him and is actively buying up any drawdown, since everyone understands perfectly well that the monetary policy cycle is at the final stage.
To make it easier to understand market behavior against the backdrop of the Fed meeting, look at the picture.
As you can see throughout 2024, the market behaves the same way, starting to fall a few days before the Fed meeting and starting to rise immediately after it.
👊 For several months now, the head of the Federal Reserve has been under pressure from above, saying it’s time to end the monetary policy cycle, because there are elections ahead and they need votes.
And just yesterday, US senators wrote a letter demanding that the Fed lower the rate.
The US government literally does not allow the Federal Reserve to fulfill its main goal - to reduce inflation in the country to 2% per year.
And last week we already proved this by finding out that liquidity is actively entering the system and its amount has begun to increase significantly since last month 👉 Driver of market growth - liquidity
Therefore, it doesn’t matter what the head of the Fed says tomorrow - the market will continue to grow by the end of the week.
🕯 Technical analysis
Globally, nothing has changed. In Bitcoin, the struggle continues for the key level of $69,000 - the maximum price of the 2021 bull market.
Price $BTC continues to press towards the upper border of the current sideways pattern - the bullish Flag.
Below current prices there is a huge support block in the form of an upward trend of 2024, moving averages MA20d + MA20w and profile volume.
Moreover, the indicators are already very well cooled.
By all logic, it shouldn’t go below $66,400-$66,900, but in theory, if there are a large number of leveraged positions, the price could squeeze down to $64,000. This will be followed by an immediate buyback price of around $66,500.
💼 Therefore, for those who do not have Bitcoin positions, we recommend placing a limit grid of orders up to $64,000.
Of course, in theory, everything is possible, but we have already provided a huge amount of evidence in favor of growth. Moreover, in this growth cycle we have not seen a fall in Bitcoin of more than -20%.
In this scenario, Bitcoin could fall to $57,000, the lower limit of the current flat trend.
We do not believe in such a scenario for the previously stated reasons, especially considering that if this scenario is realized, this year’s trend will be broken.
But let’s keep this in mind, even though we no longer have the liquidity to make purchases if such a scenario comes to fruition.
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