The biggest breaking point of the Federal Reserve is the "dot plot". On Wednesday, the inflation data CPI will be released. In the next six hours, the Federal Reserve will make its interest rate decision.

Hello everyone, the Dragon Boat Festival has passed. Today, Fei Niao will briefly explain some events of this week!

Let's first look at the past data. Last time I combined several data and made a comprehensive judgment that the non-agricultural data would be good for the secondary market. However, the data was unexpectedly cold, which led to a big negative impact. Many people did not understand the logic of my judgment. I do not make blind judgments. Today I will explain them to you one by one. I started tracking the data from June 4th. Let's first look at the first data job vacancy on June 4th.

The JOLTS job vacancy data is an important economic indicator released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It provides information about labor market dynamics. Let’s just briefly talk about two things about this data.

1: Number of job vacancies: The number of job vacancies refers to the number of positions that companies are willing to fill immediately during the reporting period (usually one month). A high number of job vacancies usually indicates strong labor market demand, active recruitment by companies, and good economic conditions.

2: Job vacancy rate: The job vacancy rate is the ratio of the number of job vacancies to the sum of total employment and job vacancies. A higher job vacancy rate usually indicates a tight labor market and that companies are having difficulty finding suitable employees.

Typically, low unemployment rates lead to higher wages, which in turn push up consumer prices and fewer job openings, which I think is reflected in the decline in nonfarm payrolls and the rise in the unemployment rate, which is the first one.

Let's talk about the initial jobless claims on June 6, which is used to measure the number of new applications for unemployment benefits. It is one of the key indicators for assessing the health of the labor market and economic activity. The initial jobless claims data should be analyzed in conjunction with other labor market indicators (such as non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, JOLTS job vacancy data, etc.). This will provide a more comprehensive understanding of the labor market situation.

So it is logical that a decrease in job vacancies leads to an increase in the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, but the revision of the previous value is disgusting.

Finally, let’s take a look at the non-farm data!

The previous value was 17.5, revised to 16.5, expected to be 18.5, and announced to be 27.2! Can you believe it? Not only did they make a surprise, but they also revised the previous value. Is this what a human would do? Job vacancies decreased, initial jobless claims increased, and then the non-farm data gave you such a big surprise. Who dares to believe it? I don’t believe that the data is not fake, but after the non-farm data came out, some people shouted that the non-farm data was fake. The curator thought it was right, but Fei Niao also reminded him at the time,

Don't focus all your attention on non-agricultural data. The unemployment rate is the key. As mentioned above, a low unemployment rate will lead to wage increases and push up consumer prices. So the increase in non-agricultural data and unemployment rate last week is a bit like a suspense film, because it was a global decline, the gold and silver market, the cryptocurrency market, and non-US currencies! It's a bit like a certain street investment bank jointly harvesting the world. From the perspective of non-agricultural data fraud + rising unemployment rate, Fei Niao believes that things will get better and better in the future. After all, the unemployment rate is there. As for whether last week's non-agricultural data was fraudulent, this week's CPI will give the answer. Let's talk about CPI below!

The CPI inflation data will be released at 20:30 on Wednesday evening, June 12!

The difference in the monthly rates after seasonal adjustment is large, while the other differences are not large, and the probability of an upset is extremely small. Therefore, the curator believes that last week’s non-agricultural data is still suspected of being fake, and he is angry!

The relationship between CPI data and non-agricultural data. CPI (Consumer Price Index) and non-agricultural employment data (NFP) are two important economic indicators. The relationship between them can be interpreted from the following aspects:

1: Inflation and Employment: CPI: reflects the price changes of a basket of goods and services purchased by consumers and is the main indicator for measuring inflation.
Non-farm payrolls data: reflects the number of new jobs in the U.S. economy outside the agricultural sector and is a key indicator of the health of the job market.
Relationship: Generally speaking, low unemployment rates lead to wage increases, which in turn push up consumer prices and affect CPI. Conversely, if the job market is weak and wage growth is weak, the pressure on CPI to rise will also be reduced.

2: Monetary policy:

Central bank decisions: Central banks (such as the Federal Reserve) make monetary policy based on CPI and non-farm payrolls data. If CPI shows rising inflation and non-farm payrolls are strong, the central bank may raise interest rates to control inflation. If CPI is low and non-farm payrolls are weak, the central bank may cut interest rates to stimulate the economy.

3. Economic health:

Comprehensive analysis: CPI and non-farm payrolls together reflect the health of the economy. High CPI and high employment rates usually indicate an overheated economy, while low CPI and low employment rates may indicate a weak economy.

4: Market expectations:

Investor Behavior: Investors and analysts use these two data points to predict the economic outlook and market trends. A strong non-farm payrolls data may boost market confidence and push up the stock market, while a high CPI may raise concerns about inflation and affect the bond market.

5: Interaction between wages and prices:

Wage growth: The wage growth part of the non-farm payrolls data has a direct impact on CPI. Rising wages will increase consumer purchasing power, increase consumer demand, and thus push up the prices of goods and services.
Price transmission: When businesses face rising wage costs, they may pass these costs on to consumers, causing the CPI to rise.

After being beaten by the non-farm data last time, I dare not judge CPI this time. If the non-farm data last week is in line with the unexpected trend, this time CPI is likely to be pushed up. If CPI is not pushed up this time, it is enough to prove that the non-farm data last week was fake data! The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be made at 2 a.m. on Thursday. There is no need to say too much about the interest rate decision. It is likely to maintain the interest rate unchanged. Not raising interest rates is a good thing, but maintaining high interest rates is also painful. I will not write about the market analysis. There is nothing to write or analyze about this bad market. Wait for the key data to be released. Important economic data this month will continue until the 20th. The market trend is expected to change on Wednesday and Thursday. Just wait patiently, the future will get better and better.#美联储利率决策即将公布 #CPI数据