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This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:
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Weekly Review
This week, from June 3 to June 10, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $71,997 and the lowest was close to $67,612, with a fluctuation range of about 6.4%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 67,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000–63000: about 890,000 pieces;
64000–68000: about 830,000 pieces;
The probability of not falling below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Important news
Economic News
On Thursday, June 6, the European Central Bank announced its June interest rate decision. As expected, it cut interest rates by 25 basis points. This was the first time since 2019 and the second central bank among G7 member countries to cut interest rates.
On June 5, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%, in line with market expectations.
Interest rate market data shows that there is a 60% chance that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates further in July.
On Thursday, U.S. data showed that the number of JOLTs job vacancies in the United States in April was 8.059 million, lower than the expected value of 8.355 million and lower than the previous value of 8.488 million.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 272,000 in May, compared with expectations of 180,000 and the previous value of 175,000.
The U.S. unemployment rate was 4% in May, expected to be 3.90%, and the previous value was 3.90%.
Encrypted ecological news
According to HODL15Capital data, the Australian Monochrome spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of 1 BTC on the first day.
South Korea’s new law, which will require banks to pay interest on deposits held at cryptocurrency exchanges, will take effect in July 2024.
According to Bitcoin Magazine, El Salvador currently holds 5,770 BTC, worth $402 million.
The U.S. spot BTC ETF attracted approximately $2.4 billion in the past month, making it the third largest net inflow in the entire ETF market.
K33 Research stated in the report that the spot ETH ETF will soon be listed in the United States. K33 estimates that the inflow of ETH ETF in the first five months will be between 3 billion and 4.8 billion US dollars.
Bernstein analysts said the changing narrative behind the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) unexpected approval of an ETH ETF has lost credibility after Biden vetoed the SAB 121 repeal bill.
Biden vetoed the bill to repeal SAB 121, indicating that the SEC's decision was more pragmatic to avoid legal disputes.
David Krause, a professor at Marquette University in the United States, believes that the Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) purchased $164 million of BTC spot ETFs in the first quarter, which may just be a test of market reaction. It is expected that SWIB and other US pension plans may continue to follow up. SWIB manages approximately $156 billion in assets.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Capitulation and profit realization by long-term and short-term players
Large net positions on exchanges
Traditional whale net position
US Crypto ETF Net Positions
(Figure below: surrender and profit realization of long-term and short-term participants)
This is new experimental data:
Light green area: short-term speculators take profits
Green area: long-term investors have made huge profits
Yellow Zone: Short-term speculators capitulate
Red area: long-term investor portraits.
The blue moving averages represent relative losses, relative profits, large profits, and super large profits for long-term investors.
Generally speaking, when the green and light green areas and the light blue moving average, which is the dividing line for super large profits, meet for the first time, the market will fall into a state of stagnation or a stage top.
When the yellow and red areas occur simultaneously, it is usually the bottom of the cycle, and the yellow area is usually the bottom of the bull market.
Currently, the huge profits of long-term investors are around 71,800. Before that, there were fluctuations and periodic tops at this position.
(The following figure shows large net positions on exchanges)
The chart shows that the number of single transfers of over USD 1 million into the exchange (negative) has decreased to a relatively low level.
The market's massive sell-off began to decline.
(The figure below shows the traditional whale net position)
Whales also began to accumulate funds, but their willingness to buy began to decline.
(Figure below shows US crypto ETF net positions)
The U.S. ETF crypto net positions showed continuous positive inflows for several days, and the ETF selling pressure began to ease.
The market started to see more external capital inflows.
Mid-term exploration
Incremental Model
Accumulation trend points
Ratio of long-term to short-term SOPR
Positive sentiment on the Internet
(Incremental model below)
In the recent market conditions, the overall performance is close to the game situation in the existing market.
There is no sign of a reversal in the incremental volume in the market. Perhaps from the perspective of BTC, the stock situation in the market is still maintained.
(The following figure shows the accumulation trend)
The accumulation situation in the market has eased slightly, and the accumulation status of addresses >10k is gradually approaching 0.5 points.
If this situation continues, the market may gradually present an accumulation structure, exchanging time for space.
Combined with the incremental model, in a stock environment, the accumulation trend of large groups may improve the situation in the market.
(Figure below shows the ratio of long-term to short-term SOPR)
SOPR, or the cost-output profit ratio, looks at the ratio of profit to loss over a period of time.
This indicator sets the green line as the upper threshold and the light blue line as the lower threshold.
When the model breaks through the upper threshold, it may mean that the market has reached the highest profit level that it can currently bear.
It has already been touched once in March 2024, and the current market is closer to a neutral tone.
It is possible that SOPR levels are still oscillating within the threshold range.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
On-chain transaction sentiment shows signs of slowing down slightly, but judging from the growth situation, it is still in the upward trend channel.
It is possible that the current growth situation remains to be seen.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the neutral area. The risk of derivatives is moderate.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
Consistent with last week's expectations, ETH showed a volatile adjustment. Last week, the risk factor rose from the red area to the green area and is now in the neutral area. However, judging from the risk factor, the market may continue to volatile this week.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Options trading volume has declined slightly and the put option ratio is low.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volumes were at low levels.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility fell slightly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The short-term holder cost line is around 63K. The continuous market fluctuations also show that the panic sentiment (orange line) is difficult to continue to rise at the current price without external black swan conditions, causing a sharp drop in the market. Currently, both positive sentiment (blue line) and panic sentiment (orange line) are at a relatively low level.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, there is a large amount of accumulated outflow, and the selling pressure in the market is relatively low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
BTC exchange net positions are in a state of large outflow accumulation.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH exchange net positions are in a state of large outflow accumulation.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at the moment.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has declined slightly, and stablecoin purchasing power has rebounded slightly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
This week continued the tone of last week, with a slight decline in purchasing power in the Americas, but a slight recovery in purchasing power in Asia and Europe. Overall, purchasing power fell slightly compared to last week.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDT exchange net positions have recovered slightly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at 71,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 65000 and 67500;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 71000, 72000 and 73000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 65000, 66000, 67000, and 68000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 71000, 72000 and 73000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 65000 and 68500;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000, 71000, 72000 and 73000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
The non-farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, exceeding expectations by only 90,000, but at the same time, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 3.9% to 4.0%, the highest level in two years.
New employment exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate rose instead of falling. This only shows that the logic of the data does not meet expectations.
In the past year, native workers lost 668,000 jobs, while immigrants added 934,000 jobs. This is most likely due to immigration.
Therefore, the overall expectations can still maintain a certain degree of optimism. As for data anomalies, the market needs to react, and all this takes time.
When interest rate cuts take place, it may be the climax of the bull market.
In the short term, focus on the CPI on June 12.
On-chain long-term insights:
Long-term investors around 71,800 made multiple profits, and it became the stage top of the market, and there were multiple callbacks;
Large sell-offs on exchanges are starting to decline;
The accumulation of funds by whales has dropped significantly compared to the beginning of this year, but is still accumulating;
U.S. crypto ETFs have shown positive inflows for many days, and the market has once again gained an additional channel for capital inflows rather than pressure.
Market setting:
The selling pressure in the market began to decline and turned back to accumulation, but the degree of accumulation was not strong.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
From the perspective of BTC, the market is still in a stock state;
Addresses >10k are accumulating, which may slightly improve the current situation;
SOPR is oscillating in the neutral zone;
On-chain sentiment remains positive.
Market setting:
Accumulation, stalemate
The accumulation situation in the market has improved, and the rhythm in the market may be relatively stalemate in the inventory environment.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the neutral area and the risk is moderate.
The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange showed a large amount of accumulated outflows, and the selling pressure was relatively low.
Global purchasing power has declined slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has rebounded slightly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the 68,000 price level, and a willingness to sell at the 71,000 price level.
The probability that it will not fall below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 90%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Market setting:
The overall market sentiment is in a neutral position, and the short-term holder cost line (short-term strong support) has come to around 63K. In the short term, without external interference, the overall probability of a large-scale short squeeze is still expected to be low, and it is more inclined to fluctuate upward. The probability of a large-scale decline in the market is still extremely low.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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