The expectation of US interest rate cut was hit hard, and the currency market took the opportunity to clear leverage, and the trend did not change.
Auntie Bing held the currency and waited for the rise, and it was reasonable to enter the market at a low point.
The cottage industry is divided, and it is not suitable to intervene in non-hot spots and non-strong dealers.
This week's CPI data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting are coming, and there will be another big fluctuation.
1. Fundamentals
1. Last Friday, the non-farm payroll data released by the United States in May exceeded expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cut was hit hard. Interest rate futures show that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pricing this year has been lowered from 48 basis points to 37 basis points, and the first reduction is more likely to occur in November rather than September.
2. Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively, with the big cake falling by more than 2%, the amplitude exceeding 5%, and most cottages falling by more than 20%. However, Auntie Bing's trend has not changed. Most investors have no desire to trade at the current position regardless of profit or loss. The volatility of the big cake continued to decline during this period.
3. Focus this week:
June 12 20:30: US May CPI data
June 13 02:00: The Federal Reserve announces interest rate resolution and economic forecast summary, 02:30 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference
4. The June interest rate meeting will be one of the most critical meetings this year. Although there is almost no suspense that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, this meeting will announce a summary of economic expectations and the interest rate dot plot that the market focuses on, which may provide the clearest hint so far on the timetable for interest rate cuts. The new dot plot may indicate the number of interest rate cuts this year.
2. Big Pie Spot ETF Trading
June 7 Net inflow of US$131 million, the 19th consecutive day of net inflow, corresponding to about 1,849 purchases after 21:30 tonight. Net outflow of 2 companies, net inflow of 2 companies, and 6 companies are shown as 0 (no capital flow or small amount).
3. Market Tone and Suggestions
1. $BTC : The correction caused by the macro fundamentals is more of a leverage clearing. The trend is not abnormal and continues to consolidate at a high level. This week's US CPI data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will bring greater fluctuations.
2. $ETH : Continue to consolidate at a high level, and increase the position of the concubine appropriately.
3. Shanzhai: Risk aversion is obvious this week, and it is recommended to wait and see; non-hot spots, non-strong dealers, and green species, intervene cautiously.
4. Suggestions: It is recommended to keep 50% of the total position unchanged and hold the currency for a rise; light positions can increase the positions of big cakes and concubines at low prices.
BTC entry range: 68000~67000
ETH entry range: 3650~3550
