/1. Technical school: The collapse of the copycat MeMe has become a bright spot again, and the macro-negative factors may cause the main rising wave to be delayed
/2. Macroeconomics: Employment data breaks the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the market will start a game around the results of the interest rate meeting
/3. Data faction: Shanzhai bull leverage has been completely cleared, and the key support has been established without changing the upward trend
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Blogger's original excerpt:
1/. The price of Bitcoin did not drop too much, and the copycats directly jumped from the high platform. Clearing the high leverage is actually a good thing, which is more conducive to the subsequent market development. - Short-term expert Victory
2/. If the FOMC meeting and CPI on the 12th continue to be negative like the non-farm payrolls this Friday, there will be no market in June, and 66670 may not be maintained. By then, the expectation of the main wave starting can be further postponed to July. Let's wait and see these two things next week, and then update the market judgment for June. ——BlackJack
3/. If it falls below 67,000, the position at 67,000 will be reduced. I estimate that there is a high probability that the position at 56,000 will not be reduced in the near future. If there is an opportunity, it should be to choose to buy at the bottom rather than reduce the position. - Chen Guilin
4/. In fact, here we are waiting for the release of these two long and short data, and waiting for the real trend direction that may appear after the funds are fully gambled. But from beginning to end, the entire medium- and long-term upward trend is undoubtedly upward! A callback is a good time to buy more! ——Full-time dad Lu Yao
5/、At present, the strongest recovery of losses is still meme—Biupa-TZC
6/. This wave of decline has completely cleared the leverage of copycats, and most retail investors have not survived. The decline of Bitcoin is relatively small. I think the long leverage has been cleared, and the bottom needs to be confirmed. If Bitcoin stabilizes at 68, the market will continue to rise. - Crypto-Changshan Zhao Zilong
7/. If you don't call for a 150,000 bull market, you are a bear. According to this definition, I am indeed the most determined bear among all people. The bears have called for a bull market some time ago, but I haven't seen a big rise trend yet. However, I am also bearish for the time being! The stock market will share some risk preferences. BTC is entangled in a range and will fall sharply after the interest rate cut. - Herman Jin
8/. Bitcoin cannot close above 70,000 today. It is estimated that it will continue to search for a bottom, first looking at around 67,000. If it falls below 68,800, the daily rising trend line will be broken. If it falls below 67,000, the double top will be established, and Game Over. ——Pathfinder
9/、The strength of employment determines whether the Fed will cut interest rates in advance, while "inflation" determines whether the Fed will postpone cutting interest rates. In summary, the timing of future interest rate cuts is "weak employment + weak inflation". ——qinbafrank
10/ Before the painting, the current weekly line was actually very bullish, but now the three consecutive long upper shadows have forced me to be a little bearish; 1. The oscillation time is too long (more than 100 days) √; 2. Failure to break through the supply zone for 3 consecutive weeks (waiting for confirmation on Monday) ×; 3. The callback has reached a new low (still not seen) ×; After 1~3 are all met, this round of bull market can be called a "bear bull"——Crypto_Painter
11/. Bitcoin has fallen to the EMA20 daily line, which is still within the safe range, but the biggest problem is that expectations have been dashed. As I said yesterday, June, July and August will be difficult to endure. Although there is hope, the overall probability of a stagnant market is relatively high. If there are other markets such as government bonds that suck blood, then we can only wait for the interest rate cut to come. —TraderS
12/. This week's market game on the job market and unemployment rate ended in failure, so we will continue to wait for the CPI inflation data next Wednesday and more news on the Fed's dot plot in the early hours of Wednesday. - Schrodinger's Cat Uncle
13/. On the contrary, the dot plot during the interest rate meeting is the most critical, because it can clearly show the most real thoughts of the Fed officials now, especially the dot plot in 2024, we can know whether the Fed officials are inclined to cut interest rates once, twice or three times. There is no ambiguity in this data. A rate cut once is bad news, a rate cut twice is expected, and a rate cut three or more times is good news. It's that simple. - Phyrex
14/、The URPD data shows that the main change in the chain structure in the past 20 days is that the chips in the range of 60,000-64,000 US dollars have been traded in large quantities to the range of 66,000-68,000 US dollars, and nearly 1.55 million BTC have been accumulated. This forms a relatively thick "safety cushion" above the STH-RP of 63,000 US dollars (the only drawback is that it has thickness, but lacks some width). Therefore, I think that based on the current data, if there is no sudden external event that seriously hits the mood, this lower limit will not be easy to break, and friends do not need to be overly pessimistic. ——Murphy
15/. This week, the cryptocurrency market followed the expectation of interest rate cuts and then fell back, but the weekly line still closed higher. The overall trend is relatively slow, with low volatility. I still maintain my previous view of watching more and doing less, and wait for the trend to form before participating. ——CallmePope
16/、Unemployment rate: It has finally reached 4%, which is a step into the threshold of interest rate cuts. This is very important. Historical experience tells us that if the non-agricultural employment of the current month looks outrageous, pay attention to the revised value of the next month. If the revised value of the next month is also high, it is confirmed. ——Owen.btc
17/、The CPI and PPI data released next week will be the main theme of trading in the next half month - whether to continue trading on the expectation of interest rate cuts or switch to trading on the expectation of recession depends on the performance of inflation data next week. We need to pay close attention to the changes in the US Treasury term premium - vivienna.btc
That’s all. If it helps, please like and comment.#非农就业人数高于预期 #第55期新币挖矿IO #币安用户数突破2亿 #bnb历史新高 #美联储何时降息？ 