The game has never stopped. The euro’s interest rate cut is not to resist harvesting. The promotion of AI is a defensive measure!
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1. Game
The global game has never stopped, because the development of economies and growth will be accompanied by contradictions. Similarly, capitalists hope for contradictions to arise because an external contradiction system can resolve internal economic crises, just as World War II eliminated the Great Depression crisis after the American industrial age.
Let’s not talk too far back. In the late 1980s, the conflict between the United States and the former Soviet Union was unable to take direct action due to the emergence of the nuclear threat agreement, and the game scene involved space. The former Soviet Union established the first space station in human history, which everyone should have heard of. The rumor that the former Soviet astronauts were in space, and when they returned home, their country was gone, that’s the joke. The former Soviet Union played the game of space stations and weapons, and the United States played the game of Internet technology. Therefore, in the Internet era, the United States has paid a lot of "silent capital" since the late 1980s. The early investment, research and development, experiments, and applications were all dominated by the military.
After the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, the contradictions in the United States disappeared. After a three-year confidentiality agreement, the Internet technology and achievements were finally announced in 1993-1994. Bill Gates, Jack Ma and others all benefited from this wave of "silent capital", which triggered the Internet boom.
Everyone should know who the main contradiction in the United States is. However, Russia has already intended to join hands with Germany to dominate Europe. It should be noted that the emergence of the euro has not directly dominated Europe. So once there is this sign, the United States has strategically turned the revolution into a revolution in Ukraine since 2000.
The above are all the emergence of contradictions.
Euro rate cut
Many people believe that the euro rate cut is to prevent the euro from being harvested by the United States. This is actually a correct perspective, but it is not completely correct. After the euro rate cut, if the euro zone has sufficient ability to control the capital outflow from the zone, then it can complete the defense measures, otherwise it will be harvested. However, if it cannot be defended, the interest rate cut may accelerate the outflow of euro capital. After all, under the interest rate difference, the US dollar and the Japanese yen have a certain appeal.
And what did the United States do while the euro cut interest rates?
The abnormal rise in employment data has reduced the recent optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts in the United States. The US dollar index once hit 105. Although the US debt has fallen in the short term, it still maintains a high value. Moreover, under the employment data, the expectation of a strong US economy has exerted a strong siphoning effect on the world. At this time, whoever cuts interest rates will face the problem of self-defense capital outflow.
The promotion of AI may not be for the purpose of "meeting the needs of the times" but as a defensive measure.
As I said in the first paragraph, the emergence of the Internet in 1993-1994 created what? It created the development of the times, but it also created the Asian financial crisis around 1997-1998. Many people were misled by the media and believed that the Asian financial crisis was caused by weak national strength and poor management, but in fact, the core was the Internet boom, which led to most of the global, especially Asian, funds flowing into the United States.
You have to know that at that time, developed countries had just transferred labor-intensive industries to third world countries, and third world countries had just completed the accumulation of industrial capital and had money in their hands, and the money naturally went to hot spots, so a large amount of funds flowed into the United States, resulting in the hollowing out of the Asian economy. Coupled with appropriate short selling, Soros almost made a big killing.
Fast forward 30 years and looking at current AI, AI technology is still dominated by the United States, and the wealth-creating effect and technology sources all come from the United States. So where will the capital go?
From this perspective, let's look at why the village and other regions are pushing AI so hard? Is it just to pursue the first technology line? Is it just to strive for progress? In fact, the core is still to strive to catch up with technology and hot spots and prevent the outflow of self-capital.
Because a country can never cut off external liquidity, and closing the country to the outside world is a thing of the past. Therefore, defensive measures are very important. Finding hot spots and chasing hot spots, even if it is ugly, can save capital outflows. This is an effective defensive measure. After all, under the high interest rates in the United States, there are actually not many effective measures available.
The revision was just made today. This article was supposed to be published during the day, but it was delayed. The update frequency may be slow in the next two days. Please forgive me. #BTC走勢分析