I heard that everyone is waiting for this data at 20:30 tonight. It is said that the largest single transaction just now was nearly 500,000 dollars. I wonder who it was? 3.65 million CNY was gone in one shot, and a villa in a second-tier city was gone just like that!
If I say that I have started to plan for this wave of non-agricultural data since 31/1 (of course, the premise is that the No. 1 indicator on 31st also cooperates with the rebound demand for three to five days)
You must think I am bragging! That is because you have not listened to my live voice broadcast and market analysis and layout ideas in the past week!
There is nothing to be afraid of if the non-farm data exceeds expectations. The unemployment rate also broke 4% for the first time in nearly two years.
What do you think is more important, one month's non-farm data or the rising unemployment rate?
Don’t these two data seem contradictory? The number of employed people has increased significantly, but the unemployment rate is still rising. What does this mean?
This invisible hand is a bit messed up today!
Tonight's data is just an emergency brake on the slope of interest rate cuts. We can be optimistic, but not too optimistic. The Central Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank cut interest rates before, and I, the Federal Reserve, cannot be dragged down by them. In fact, I haven't reaped enough rewards yet, and I will not allow the interest rates to be cut so quickly this time!
The impact of this data only reduces the probability of a rate cut in September. Some radical experts even begin to predict that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year. These experts are no different from domestic experts. It is unnecessary to take off their pants to fart. If the data is good, you say the rate cut will be brought forward, and if the data is not good, you say it will be postponed. What is the difference between this and the leeks who chase highs when the price goes up and sell their stocks when the price goes down!
So if you want to plan data, you must plan ahead, not follow the data, because these data may have been obtained by Wall Street financial tycoons a few days ago, and the mouse positions have already been established! They are still waiting for you to look at the data to make money. The data guides the macro economy, not short-term micro transactions! So this point must be clear!
Tonight's data is both bearish and bullish, bullish for the US economy and bearish for financial assets! Because more employment indicates a strong economy, rich people, strong consumption, and increased performance! Financial assets need US dollars, nothing more than lower financing costs and more US dollars!
Therefore, the S&P 500 in the U.S. stock market will be stronger, the Nasdaq will be weak, the real economy will be strong, and the financial companies will be weak. The overall U.S. dollar index will still be bullish, and it is a win-win situation for the Federal Reserve no matter how you look at it!
The key point of BTC tonight is 70700. This point is the key point of the trend line extended in the early morning. It can be broken, but if it is recovered, it will still be strong. If it falls below and is suppressed with large volume, then we must be cautious!
Pay attention to the closing prices at 0:00/4:00/8:00. This is the point of concern: whether the rebound will continue over the weekend or the market will fall back again with large volume!