Tonight's non-agricultural data has not been released yet, and $BTC and $ETH have started to rise sharply. Is this good news? It should be great tonight. I quickly grabbed the BTC order that I went long with Lao Deng. I don't know if this wave of longs will go up.
Tonight is the time when the non-agricultural data will be released, and there are two key points and three data. However, in fact, for most friends, it is enough to pay attention to the unemployment rate. The previous value of the unemployment rate was 3.9%, and the market expectation was also 3.9%. When the final result is higher than 3.9% (for example, it reaches 4% or higher), then the interpretation of the market will be positive, because this is directly in line with what Powell said in the last interest rate meeting that when the unemployment rate exceeds 4%, the expectation of interest rate cuts will be reconsidered (strengthened). When the final result is less than 3.9% (for example, 3.8% or lower), then the interpretation of the market will be negative, because this does not conform to the observation that the Fed wants to cool down employment, and prolongs the possibility of the Fed entering a rate cut cycle. When the final result is 3.9%, although it is in line with expectations, it does not meet the market's expectations. The market expects to achieve an early interest rate cut, but the unchanged unemployment rate will still disappoint many investors. However, even if they are disappointed, it has not yet reached the "very" level. The other two data are the annual wage rate and the monthly wage rate. The lower the two data, the more favorable it is. However, as long as the non-agricultural unemployment rate is high enough, the impact of wages will be weakened. Of course, there is also the number of jobs, but the reason why I don’t think it is the key number is that the current problems of illegal and legal immigration are extremely prominent. It cannot be ruled out that the employment rate will increase due to immigration factors. If you want to look at the employment rate, you also need to look at the labor participation rate. These situations are too complicated.
