After a day of movement, the market returned to the starting point. As of the time of writing, the current BTC price is around 29,200.
As expected, there was a rebound last night, which gave those who have not yet entered the market an opportunity. However, unfortunately, the rise last night was mainly concentrated in Ethereum, while other altcoins did not show obvious trends.
Tonight's non-farm data, let's talk about it in detail. Last month's non-farm data was 20.9, and the expected value this time was 20. I personally predict that the published data will be greater than the expected value and the previous value. From the data, the data in May was 30, and it dropped to 20.9 in June. The data dropped sharply, reflecting that the US economy is in recession and the Federal Reserve has also adopted a corresponding interest rate hike policy. However, due to the large decline in the data in the previous cycle, it is unlikely that there will be a larger gap in the data this time. Although the US economy has declined, it will not be so rapid.
According to the economic situation in July, the US economy seems to have stabilized, so the non-farm data in July may have a small rebound, exceeding the expected value and the previous value. From the perspective of US finance, US stocks and treasury bonds performed well in July, which directly reflects the improvement of the US economic situation and did not accelerate the recession as imagined. The inflation rate in the previous cycle also showed a low value. All data and market conditions show that the US economy is relatively stable.
Although Fitch has recently downgraded the US rating, established financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Buffett do not agree with this rating. They are still optimistic about the returns of US stocks and government bonds. Although the incident occurred in early August, the relevant market situation can be inferred.
To sum up tonight's non-agricultural data, it may be bearish for the crypto market in the short term, but in the long run, it is bullish for the investment market. The short-term bearish factor is that the US economy is performing well, leading to an increase in the US dollar index, US stocks and US bond yields, which may cause investors to shift funds from the sluggish crypto market to the higher-yielding US stock and Treasury markets.
The long-term positive factor is that the Fed mentioned in its last monetary policy speech that if the data continues to be positive, it will reduce the possibility of future interest rate hikes. If the Fed suspends interest rate hikes, the entire financial market will be full of vitality, and the growth of US stocks and US bond yields will attract more investors to enter the market. The overall investment market will become active again, and the crypto market will also be driven.
In fact, the non-agricultural data has little impact on the current crypto market. In a sluggish trading environment, such economic data usually only causes fluctuations of 300-500 points. I personally think that 300 points may be the limit. The focus of tonight's non-agricultural data is whether it can break the current range and push the market to accelerate downward.
In the short term, we still maintain a high-level bearish mindset, mainly depending on whether the non-agricultural data tonight can break the 29,000 level. If it continues above this level, then tonight may usher in a rebound, which also gives everyone an opportunity to get on board. My suggestion is to short at high levels, mainly to connect with the needle! Spot is not within our consideration range at present. I bought an LBR yesterday, which is still quite potential. The V2 version will be updated soon, so you can look forward to it!