Many market consensuses in this bull market have been overturned by reality. Let’s look at the following points in detail:
The consensus that Litecoin’s halving will trigger a price increase has collapsed. The market had generally believed that the halving of Litecoin would drive its price up, but this was not the case and this expectation failed to materialize.
The consensus that there will be a calf market in 2023 has also come to nothing. The market originally expected this year to be a small bull market, but in fact, the market trend in the second half of the year showed the characteristics of a big bull market, breaking previous predictions.
The general expectation that a big bull market will start in 2024 has also failed to withstand the test of the market. Today, half a year has passed, and the market has not experienced the expected surge, but has experienced a significant decline.
The consensus that the price of certain currencies will soar hundreds of times has now been broken by reality. The market value of newly listed currencies is often quite high, and the possibility of a hundred-fold increase is greatly reduced.
The market consensus of “speculating on the new, not the old” has also been challenged.
Compared with the old Meme currency, the new currency’s ability to create wealth is not outstanding, which is very different from the market’s expectations.
In such a market environment, how can we form a more robust consensus to avoid being easily broken? An important method is that we need to remain cautious when facing the recognition of KOL (opinion leaders) with high traffic and huge influence. When a reliable analysis resonates with many KOLs, we should consider playing devil’s advocate and thinking from the opposite side.
This is because when market sentiment and cognition are highly consistent, it is often easy to form a "herding effect", leading to market overreaction. At this time, if we can examine the problem from different angles and let market sentiment and cognition form a "contradiction", it will help us understand the market more comprehensively and form a consensus that is more robust and difficult to be broken.
