New U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs could attract between $3.1 billion and $4.8 billion in net inflows in the first five months of trading, according to analysts at K33 Research.

Analysts' estimates are based on market size comparisons between Bitcoin and Ether, according to a Tuesday report by Vetle Lunde, Senior Analyst at K33, and David Zimmerman, DeFi Analyst.

Currently, approximately 3.3% of circulating Ether supply is in investment vehicles and has been steadily decreasing since the peak of the crypto bull market in November 2021. This reflects a similar trend. for bitcoin held in investment vehicles, dropped to 4.1% before the hype surrounding the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin ETF products have increased to 5.6% of circulating supply, according to K33.

Globally, Ethereum ETPs currently hold 28.2% more assets under management than comparable Bitcoin ETPs, excluding US Bitcoin spot ETFs. In Canada and Europe, that number is about 33%.

While US Ethereum Futures ETFs dwarf that global figure, accounting for just 5% of comparable Bitcoin ETPs, Lunde and Zimmerman attribute this to the time difference between their respective launches. represents investment demand.

“The thesis of unrepresentative Futures ETFs being an outlier is reinforced by ETH open interest on CME, which is currently 22.9% of the size of BTC, while averaging 35% market share of BTC futures since launch, showing significant institutional demand for ETH in the United States,” the analysts added.

Applying weights from those peer markets to the Bitcoin spot ETF's total net inflows of $14 billion since its launch in January, K33 estimates suggest that spot Ethereum ETFs could accumulate between 800,000 ETH to 1.26 million ETH in the first five months — equivalent to between 0.7% and 1.05% of the circulating Ether supply.

Still wouldn't bet against Fink

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 19b-4 forms for eight spot Ethereum ETFs from firms like BlackRock and Fidelity on May 23. However, issuers still need to have an S-1 registration statement in effect before trading can begin, a process that can take several weeks.

Analysts say they are “still not betting against Larry Fink,” with the BlackRock CEO's “Midas touch” creating a setup for ETH's relative strength over the summer.

“Absorbing such significant supply could lead to an increase in the price of ETH, following the strong relationship seen between BTC ETF inflows and returns throughout the year,” they added.

The new Ethereum spot ETFs will not accrue staking rewards at launch, a factor that appears to be important in SEC approval. While some argue that lack of staking will lead to lower demand due to opportunity costs, K33 analysts disagree.

“Over 98% of AUM of European and Canadian ETH ETFs is in non-staking ETPs. This shows that lack of staking is not a deciding factor for ETP investors,” they said.

Source: https://tapchibitcoin.io/cac-etf-ethereum-delivery-day-co-the-hap-thu-hon-1-million-eth-in-5-month-dau-k33.html