In the prediction markets this week:

Trump has been convicted but bettors at Polymarket believe he will not go to prison and will return to the White House.

There will be no interest rate cut this year, say Kalshi traders.

At crypto-based Polymarket, Trump's guilty verdict did not move prices much, as the election contract approached $150 million in total bets.

A contract question at Polymarket was "Will Trump go to jail?" The majority of bettors are quite confident that he will not see the inside of the cell, placing the probability of him being imprisoned at 76%.

When is the interest rate cut?

While Kalshi and Polymarket traders do not expect a rate cut, this contrasts sharply with the FedWatch survey, which expects one by the fall and is confident of another by the winter.

Economists are divided on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2024.

This divergence will be something to watch to see if market participants on CME's FedWatch have more information than observers in the prediction markets.

Do you think Trump will go to jail? When will the interest rate cut occur? We are waiting your comments! 👇🤔