The PCE data released by the US last Friday was not bad. The core PCE released value of 2.8% was in line with expectations and lower than the revised 2.82% of the previous value. The broad PCE of 2.7% was also consistent with the previous value and expectations. I said in my article last week that the market was still quite pessimistic before the release of this PCE. It was expected that inflation would rebound, so I said that as long as the PCE can be consistent with expectations this time, it will be good news. Therefore, Friday's data should be considered good news. We can also see this from the increase in CME's expectations for interest rate cuts after the data was released. The probability of a rate cut in September has increased to 54%, compared with the 45% probability at the low point last week, which has increased by nearly 10 percentage points.

Tonight we will have the US PMI data for May, Wednesday we will have the US non-farm ADP employment data, as well as the Bank of Canada's interest rate policy. The market expects there is an 80% chance of a rate cut. There is also the ECB's interest rate meeting on Thursday, and the market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut. Friday is the highlight, with the US announcing May non-farm employment data and unemployment rate. Whether it can strike while the iron is hot and finalize a rate cut in September depends on the non-farm data, so we must pay close attention to it.