Last Friday, the core PCE price index, which the Fed focuses on, recorded a monthly rate of 0.2%, slightly lower than the expected 0.3%, setting a new low since December 2023. After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields fell for four consecutive days, giving up half of last week's gains. The ten-year bond fell below 4.5%, now at 4.475%, and the two-year bond was at 4.871%. Risk markets were boosted, with the Dow and S&P rising 1.51%/0.8% respectively, and the Nasdaq closing close to flat.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: Investing
In terms of digital currency, according to the Glassnode data shown by Leon Waldmann on Twitter, since the approval of the ETH ETF, the proportion of BTC ETH in the centralized exchange has dropped to a record low. Ethereum worth about $3 B has left the centralized exchange, increasing the possibility of potential short squeezes. BTC broke through the $68,500 resistance level today and began to challenge the next resistance level of $71,500. So far, BTC has hovered around $68,500 for nearly 12 days. If there is no hope of breaking through, it may return to $66,000 to seek support again.
Source: TradingView；Twitter
In terms of options, BTC’s front-end IV rebounded slightly before entering the working day, but as a whole it is still at a relative low point below the 25% percentile in the historical three months; ETH is slightly below the historical median, and the term curve is relatively steep. Observing the transactions in the past 24 hours, we can also see that the selling pressure of call options in mid-to-early June was strong. On the contrary, Calls in late June and July and thereafter were very popular, which may also be related to the expectation of approval of ETF S-1. The current market "consensus" is still "approval as early as July". By then, funds will enter the market and the currency price is expected to break upward again. But on the other hand, Grayscale's Ehereum Trust (ETHE) currently manages funds of up to $ 11 B, so some people are worried that after the ETF is approved for sale, the market will repeat the selling pressure of GBTC at that time.
Source: Deribit (as of 3 JUN 16: 00 UTC+ 8)
Source: SignalPlus，BTC ETH ATM Vols
Source: SignalPlus，BTC ETH 25 dRR
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH transactions
Data Source: Deribit, BTC transaction overall distribution
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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