Data shows that the $NOT token has risen by nearly 40% in the past 24 hours and more than 280% in 7 days.
What factors are driving the surge in NOT?
Staking, destruction and secondary trading
Why is it soaring?
· Staking function
· Project party destroys $NOT tokens
· Market manipulators push up prices
One reason is the reduction of circulating supply through the staking function, as well as token destruction by ecosystem project parties.
About 18 million $TON (about $350,000) was destroyed and permanently withdrawn from circulation (reducing selling pressure). Although this does not seem like much, investors may expect more destruction in the future. After all, this is a cryptocurrency and the valuation does not have to be reasonable.
Another argument heard is that market manipulators are pushing up the token price. $NOT is supported by Binance, and people often discuss how Binance-supported tokens magically rise.
So, will the rise continue?
It's hard to estimate. Personally, I would stay away from buying this token right now because the risk is too high. There are other tokens in the market with better risk-reward ratios.
On the other hand, more liquidity may flow from $$TON to $NOT because it is now considered a blue chip ecosystem token.
Bullish case for NOT
As you all know, NOT is the token for a popular social clicker game on Telegram, which later added leaderboards and squads features. At its peak, it reached a staggering 35 million users!
In addition:
· Listed and supported on Binance
· 100% of tokens in circulation
· Leveraged bet on the TON ecosystem
Bearish case for NOT
After a big rally, there is usually a high chance that a token will correct, especially in a hype rally like we saw with $$NOT .
The likelihood of a correction increases as more investors buy the token due to fear of missing out (FOMO). These investors usually don’t have much confidence and can be easily scared off by an overall market correction.
In general
· The increase is large and may be adjusted
· Ecosystem projects may divert liquidity
NOT is the first "high-quality" token in the TON ecosystem. High-quality means that it has the attention of investors and is supported by the $TON ecosystem and Binance.
It is certain that other tokens will follow.
A better strategy might be to research and look for other tokens in the $TON ecosystem that could follow the success of $NOT .
If you decide to buy tokens at current prices, it is recommended to pay special attention to your risk management framework.
Risk Management Tips
· Consider dollar cost averaging
· Never invest more than you can afford to lose
· Anticipate how corrections will feel
Develop additional risk management steps
In the past few days, the following projects have achieved returns close to 2-4x:
· $NOT -> +311%
· $BB -> +137.9%
· $TNSR -> +74.4%
Here is a way to execute this strategy to achieve large liquidity returns.
1. Accumulation Period
During periods of high volatility, the market moves wildly, which can cause many tokens to drop 60-70% in price.
While other traders are complaining about losses, these volatile conditions are actually the best time to observe market strength and accumulate.
Below is an example of $NOT accumulation during $BTC’s recent drop to $66k (May 23-24).
One way to confirm this is to look at the changes in $NOT/$BTC, when $NOT is no longer highly correlated with $BTC’s downtrend, this indicates that accumulation is occurring.
2. Catalyst/Speculation
Speculation regarding a potential $TON listing has been very active over the past few weeks, further driving up the price of $NOT as $NOT is the only spot “beta” token correlated to $TON .
3. Low market cap/no unlocking plans in the near future
Although I have talked about low market cap high fully diluted valuation (FDV) tokens many times recently, it is generally known in the market that most market makers have an incentive to create a "soft floor" (maintain a certain price) for the token and tend to push up the price when the circulation is low, thereby artificially supporting the book value valuation of the project.
For this strategy, you want to look for tokens with a market cap of less than $50 billion.
For example:
1.$NOT 480m
2. $TNSR 99m
3. $BB 128m
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