BTC maintained a week of horizontal fluctuations last week, with the fluctuation range maintained above 67,000 and below 70,000 for the whole week, and finally settled at around 68,000. The range of BTC price movement last week coincided with the resistance range of options for May delivery (the information given by the distribution of options positions last week is that the price has a probability of fluctuating between 65,000 and 70,000), and the option sellers won in May.
June is a critical month for bulls. First of all, from the chart and BTC ETF data, we should know that the bull trend is about consistency. Since the price can reach above 70,000 and BTC ETF has maintained net inflows for two weeks, it shows that there is a basis for forming a bull trend at the daily level and above. Although the net inflow amount of BTC ETF showed signs of slowing down last week, it is certain that the spot supply caused by BTC ETF does not exist now.
Last Friday was the monthly delivery date for BTC options. With the BTC ETF net inflow slowing down, it is reasonable to maintain a relatively high level of volatility. However, at the beginning of this week, the test for bulls is relatively large. In the absence of capital pressure from above, as long as there is enough demand, a bullish trend that creates a new high on the left side can be born.
Another key point for bulls in June is#美联储缩表 In June, the Fed will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, but will slow down the pace of reduction. Slowing the balance sheet reduction can help the market adapt to the new financial environment more smoothly.
Starting from June, the Federal Open Market Committee, which is responsible for open market operations, will reduce the monthly limit on the reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings from US$60 billion to US$25 billion. This will increase the overall liquidity of the market, affect the market value of the cryptocurrency market, and is conducive to the bullish trend.
The above two points are conducive to the continuation of the bullish trend. Before Mt.Gox starts to sell BTC to the secondary market, bulls still have the opportunity to create a new high on the left. However, the price guidance given by block trading in the options market is: before September, it is expected to rise slowly rather than sharply, that is, even if the price reaches a new high, its sustainability and rising height are limited. The bottom line of the current daily bullish trend is still at 65,000. As long as the daily closing does not touch below 65,000, there is still a chance for the bullish trend to continue.#上涨 #下跌
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