Is MeMe coin really swallowing up VC coins?
No, it is just an illusion of the market's collective personality consciousness. This illusion is called over-reliance on short-term memory in neural network learning, and it often occurs in the field of market analysis.
This thread will use the method of quantitative comparative analysis to compare the data of 7D rolling volatility, correlation, and price seasonal factors of MeMe coin and VC coin during this round of rising cycle (from October 23 to present), and review the real relationship between them.
In order to ensure the consistency of comparative analysis, we divide MeMe coins and VC coins into three categories: classical leading coins, emerging blue-chip coins and newly listed star coins.
Classic MeMe coin leaders DOGE, SHIB VS Classic VC coin leaders AAVE, UNI, DOT, MKR
From the perspective of price seasonal factors, there is a strong resonance between the seasonal factors of the classic MeMe coin leader and BTC, and the impact on prices is stronger at the beginning of the month. However, there is a certain time delay between the seasonal factors of the classic VC coin leader and BTC.
From the perspective of the 7-day rolling volatility of prices, the structure of UNI is consistent with that of SHIB, with two abnormal volatility peaks in this round of rising cycle.
The two abnormal volatility peaks of SHIB are almost synchronized with BTC, and the volatility peak of DOGE has the same characteristics. This means that the property of the classic MeMe coin leader to hedge against the decline in BTC volatility is weakening.
The results of the correlation matrix once again verify the changes in the leading attributes of the classic MeMe coin. In this round of rising cycle, the correlation between SHIB and BTC is 0.53, and the correlation between DOGE is even higher, reaching 0.72.
Summary: The attributes of the MeMe coin, the leading classical MeMe coin, have been seriously degraded, and it exists more as a blue-chip token with good liquidity.
Emerging white horse MEME coins PEPE, FLOKI VS emerging white horse VC coins TIA, RNDR, Mobile
TIA's seasonality is stronger than that of PEPE and FLOKI. No wonder some market voices tease that modularity is the biggest MEME in this cycle.
In terms of 7-day rolling volatility, TIA is the undisputed leader, rather than PEPE, the brightest star among the current MeMe coins as expected.
The correlation is also very interesting. During this round of rising cycle, the correlation between TIA, Mobile and BTC is almost 0, while the correlation between PEPE and FLOKI and BTC is 0.61 and 0.46 respectively.
Summary: Among the emerging white horse coins, the secondary market characteristics of VC coins are more like MeMe coins.
Newly listed star MeMe coins BOME and SLERF VS Newly listed star VC coins ENA and Aevo
Because it is a new currency, we set the time range from March 1 this year to the present.
During this period, the seasonal factors of BTC have a weak impact, the seasonal factors of Aevo have a mainly negative impact, and the seasonal factors of SLERF have a strong impact.
Since April, whether it is VC coins or MeME coins, the 7-day volatility of the newly listed star coins has shown a rapid downward trend.
In terms of correlation, it still exceeded expectations. The correlation between BOME and BTC is 0.61, ranking first.
Summary: Since April, VC coin has been de-correlated with BTC, and its 7-day volatility has been low, which is the main source of the market's FUD sentiment towards VC coin.
Summarize
The secondary market price characteristics of VC coins and MeMe coins are not so clear-cut. There is no opposition between them. Instead, the targets in different life cycles at different time periods often bounce back and forth. Since April, the volatility of the newly listed star VC coins has decreased and the correlation with BTC is weak, making it difficult for secondary market traders to profit from them. This is the main reason for the FUD sentiment of VC coins in the market.
But as rational investors, we need to clearly understand that MeMe coins > VC coins is only a cyclical phenomenon that has only lasted for two months. Don't easily say that there will only be MeMe coins in the future, and don't fill your investment portfolio with MeMe coins. Overseas KOLs who use this meme cyclical craze for marketing are not trustworthy; Western celebrities who use this meme cyclical craze to issue coins are 100% RUG. Please remember that we are here to invest, not to gamble.