Why is the market so difficult now? It is completely different from 2016 and 2021:

1. The macro economy is in a state of complete deviance from common sense. Whether it is the cycle of long-term and short-term interest rate inversion, economic fundamentals and market expectations, geopolitical emergencies, or the conflict in the performance of major asset prices, etc., they are constantly reshaping a new anti-globalization economic cognition. As shown in the figure below

As the saying goes, "long-term unity will inevitably lead to division, and long-term division will inevitably lead to unity." We enjoy and understand the state of unity in the global "global village" and grow up in this state. We understand that the global supply chain is distributed harmoniously and the cooperation is orderly. Under the WTO system, global trade is completely open and prosperous. We have not experienced the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, nor have we experienced the 30 years of Japan's decline after the "Plaza Accord". I recently listened to Fu Peng's speech, which talked about the fact that our current economic common sense in the first 30 years and the economic common sense in the next 30 years require completely different thinking patterns, which was very inspiring. Using the financial thinking common sense of the first 30 years to think about and invest in the world of the next 30 years is bound to be easily frustrated.

2. Web3 is integrated into the global financial market, and the path of gaming and arbitrage is greatly strengthened. A typical phenomenon is that the price of cryptocurrency is extremely sensitive to the release of US economic data, which is rare in 2016 and 2021. But it is also a double-edged sword, with both advantages and disadvantages.

The positive side: volatility will be reduced, the safety factor will be enhanced, there will be a large space for technical arbitrage, and after global financial binding, it will be more predictable and more in line with cyclical laws.

The downside: expectations for price increases will decline. With the increase in financial instruments and the size of capital of participants, unilateral price increases will be effectively flattened against the backdrop of lucrative arbitrage profits. With the entry of professional players, it will be more difficult for retail investors to make profits.

3. The rise of populism leads to changes in investment logic
As the global economic engine stagnates and slows down, the average income of residents decreases, inflation is high, and people are dissatisfied with and distrustful of the government. This leads to the occurrence of various extreme situations, which are actually visible, such as the French Revolution, protest marches in various regions, and various extreme events in the country. But in the invisible level, in the financial field, the most representative is the GME (GameStop) phenomenon during the epidemic, and the prevalence of#MEMEcoins we see now, with retail investors and VCs not taking over each other. This confrontation between the positions of "people" and "elites" is guiding social behavior in all aspects, including investment.

4. In the post-AI era, human power becomes insignificant. Humans transform nature and change the climate. This is the grand tone of man conquering nature. However, in the current AI arms race, humans feel fear and anxiety. It is not only the factor of job replacement, but also the anxiety about the unknown after the advent of new technology paradigms, just like the encounter between horse-drawn carriages and Mercedes-Benz internal combustion locomotives, and the encounter between telegraphs and telephones and the World Wide Web. In the face of new things, except for a small number of elites who lead the world to change, the vast majority still have fear. This can be seen in the negative news about AI in public opinion.

The limitations of AI in our investment field are increasing. With the convenience of AI in coding and obtaining information, several investment companies I am familiar with have been using AI to run strategies and quantification, and to obtain information data capture for investment research through AI. After communication, it was found that everyone's strategies would be surprisingly similar and close when optimized, which undoubtedly magnified the limitations of investment strategies. Once the same event factors are encountered, the market volatility will increase. The information + thinking cocoon brought to people by the AI ​​era is no less harmful than long-term use of Douyin. Because the authority for independent thinking has been delegated to AI.

Current coping strategies:
1. Non-professional players, configuration#BTC☀️ It is still the simplest and most correct investment plan, which is implemented in the form of fixed investment, regular and quantitative investment, combined with the 9 God Index, which is safe and stable.

2. Professional players (my humble opinion is for reference only), layout the strong track of the market, with AI, RWA, MEME, SOL ecology as the main line, combined with market sentiment monitoring tools, combined with on-chain data, mainly do sector rotation, double the principal, guided by market sentiment, switch arbitrage. In the case of insufficient incremental funds in the market, hot money grouping is the most sensible strategy, similar to A-shares hitting the board, if there is a window guided by the media community, the success rate is higher. For example, the recent#NOT#FLOKİ

Summary: It is very important to be flexible and follow the market, and not to rigidify thinking and path dependence. In addition, it is also very important for large funds to stick together.#内容挖矿