The surge in meme coins shows that the market lacks narrative

Bitcoin has no motivation to rise for the time being, and the current stage is to shake and clean up. When the nest is overturned, there will be no eggs left intact. Once a sharp drop occurs, in the torrent of market panic, even if meme and other popular coins are bullish, their K-lines will be washed away. Therefore, a gentleman should not stand under a dangerous wall, and should avoid it decisively when it is time to avoid it.

The ups and downs of the market fully prove the embarrassing situation of insufficient capital inflow in the market; it can't go up, and it can't go down - the main contradiction at present lies in the profound contradiction between the people's growing demand for Bitcoin purchases and the serious lack of market liquidity! This may be a long process!

Judging from the data of the last two cycles, this "transition stage" may last for 1-2 years. Among them, the 2016-2017 cycle lasted 335 days, and the 2019-2020 cycle lasted 590 days; and this cycle has lasted 189 days so far. Compared with the shortest cycle of 2016-2017, there is still a gap of 146 days, that is, about 5 months.

If we combine macro factors, assuming that the Federal Reserve will start the first interest rate cut in September this year, and then enter the US election cycle, then BTC may end the above-mentioned "transition phase" in October, which seems to be exactly 5 months in terms of time. On the other hand, in this "transition phase", whenever LTH-MVRV approaches 3.5, it will be a resistance level in the market, that is, the seller pressure will become stronger.

In the current market environment, meme is the main force, rwa is auxiliary, and the rest are not very good, or the sector rotation has not yet reached some tracks. Yesterday, the Ethereum ecosystem Meme coin pepe in a memes world (PEW) went online and rose by more than 144x. There are new memes coming out every day, and there are also a lot of memes returning to zero every day. Everyone must find a rhythm that suits them when playing memes.

May has quietly slipped away before our eyes, and the brand new June is coming. Brothers, have you eaten meat in May? 6 Six is ​​not on the train yet? If you want to know more about the relevant knowledge of the currency circle and the first-hand cutting-edge information, click to follow me Zhuyefang Wumen Kanqunli to publish market analysis and recommend high-quality potential currencies every day. $BTC $MEME