I often see people who play with cryptocurrencies, open the K-line chart, look at the market, and draw some lines.
The following conclusion is drawn:
1. Now it has bottomed out and is about to rebound so you can buy at the bottom.
2. Now is the top range, it is going to plummet. It is time to sell.
3. This rise is very strong and is about to explode.
Suppose a target has this situation, but the market suddenly announces that the interest rate cut will be delayed until next year. Bitcoin and other mainstream currencies begin to plummet.
Then can the target that meets the pattern 1 continue to rise? I don't think so. Then wouldn't the conclusion that this pattern may rebound be broken? Just one possibility proves that this logic is wrong.
Then maybe he will say, I see the graph analysis is a probability, in this case there is an 80% chance of rising, then I want to ask, what dimensions are combined to make up this 80% probability? Or is this graph on the market a probability based on past statistics? If you can use statistics, others can also use statistics, then everyone in the market knows, then where is the cognitive gap, where is the profit. There are no new factors that people don't know about, why does this target rise.
So no matter which situation 123 occurs, it is useless to look at the line to buy the bottom.
Of course, it is also possible that the price will go up after you buy and down after you sell. In that case, the marketing department knows whether the price will go up or down. Even if they guess correctly, it does not mean that the strategy is effective.
Anyway, after the big drop last month, I saw many people saying that Bitcoin is going to reach $49,000. Let's wait and see.
However, on-chain data showed that when Bitcoin fell below $67,000 the day before yesterday, a giant whale bought $1.23 billion worth of BTC.
Can't these people who have so much money buy smart minds to help them make decisions? Why did he buy it at $67,000?
There is only one possible conclusion, that is, he knows for sure that no one knows whether the price will rise or fall, but he knows that the bull market is still there, the price of Bitcoin is likely to rise sharply in the future, and the bull market has not ended, so he bought it.
So would you rather believe in the people who voted with real money, or believe in the people who just said that the price would fall? Anyway, I believe in the people who bought with their money. Whether they are right or wrong, such people are courageous. If you are really bearish, you should sell all and wait until it reaches 49,000 before buying again. This is the unity of knowledge and action.
Yesterday, a fan said that he had successfully bottom-fished 10 times in the past year or half a year, and that he was very good at bottom-fishing. Doesn't 10 successes mean that I am awesome?
To successfully buy at the bottom, you must successfully escape at the top. The combination of the two is awesome. To successfully buy at the bottom, it just means that your purchase cost is lower than mine. It does not mean that you will make money.
There is another factor here, you have to buy a lot to be effective. But would a person with a lot of money buy at the bottom at this stage of the market?
For those with little money, it is useless to successfully buy at the bottom. It is only useful to buy at the bottom and sell at the top repeatedly? Is it really possible to do this? For those with a lot of money, they don’t care about buying at the bottom at all.
My conclusion is that no one can successfully buy at the bottom. If everyone can successfully buy at the bottom, then why would the price fall? He might say, "I have the skills."
Well, what if the price doesn’t fall below the price you bought at the bottom and starts to rise again? Then what should you do? Wouldn’t you miss out on making less money?
Can the profit from the small profits plus the profits from successful bottom-fishing be greater than the overall market returns? I think it definitely cannot.
Or someone might say, I will buy back when the price drops a little, then I can buy more. I say: What if the price does not drop, or drops sharply?
Can you use one strategy to face several possible situations and win with one blow? This is obviously impossible.
Are there people who have made fortunes through trading? Of course there are, some of them are lucky, and some of them are lucky to have obtained the Holy Grail.
People who control their luck, once they make some money in a bull market, they will stop playing and quit the cryptocurrency circle to enjoy life. Of course, they are this kind of people.
Also, the person who has the Holy Grail cannot reveal it, because if he reveals it, it is no longer the Holy Grail.
If you have mastered the method of turning stones into gold, would you share it with others?
If everyone can learn this technique, gold will immediately become worthless. If people can't learn it, it's useless to tell them. What's more, you can't even say it.
The Holy Grail is unique. It cannot be duplicated.
As the market changes, it is possible to make a little money by relying on information you already know.
For example, a coin friend and I often discuss shorting small coins.
My methodology is to screen small coins that are not listed on the first or second exchange, but have contracts, a market value of more than 300-500 million US dollars, and a large number of unlocked ones.
Why can’t these coins be listed on major exchanges? It’s obvious that the project owners are not strong enough. The market value is so high, and if they are listed, the project owners will definitely make money.
How to make money? Make money by relying on people to take over orders, and make money by harvesting contracts. With enough time, the value will definitely return to its original state.
Then I will collect these data, starting from the opening, and after counting, I found that among the 5 small coins, 1 skyrocketed, and 4 gradually fell.
I short 1000U each. The maximum amount of liquidation is 1000U. The profit is basically 300-500U each. I close the position.
I make 4 and lose 1. Overall, I still have a profit. So if I keep doing this, I can make a little money. Just like playing a game, for fun.
Even if the strategy changes later and I lose money, it’s not much, so I won’t play.
This is about making decisions based on information you already know.
Making decisions based on unknown information is not something we can do.
Let me talk about some recent cases.
For example, before the ETH ETF issued a notice, ETH rose to 3940U in one fell swoop. Then it fell. This must be because someone knew that it had passed. So they sold at a high price and rushed ahead. He had information that we didn’t have and made money by doing a short position. It was his resources and ability.
For example, when the uni proposal came out the day before yesterday, some people rushed to sell in large quantities near 10. This is also insider trading. He knew in advance that the proposal would be released, so he bought in advance. As soon as the news was released, he sold when the market was rising sharply.
Do you think these people have any magical abilities? No, you can still make money if you have information that the market doesn't know. Buy in advance and sell as soon as the information is released, right?
If a person can continuously obtain this kind of unpublished information and participate in it, he will definitely make a fortune.
But ordinary people like us can still make money without knowing this news.
We hold ETH and uni, and when the bull market comes, won’t they rise?
Can a person's insider trading resist the general trend of the bull market? Can his conspiracy and tricks enable him to make more money on a single target?
Any coin that cannot resist conspiracy is a so-called junk coin. It has nothing to do with the general trend. Just don't choose it.
For example, he sold ETH and uni early, and then he went to look for other targets. He had no patience.
Since we have no information, we have no choice and can only hold on to the bull market.
Isn’t it true that we earn more return on this target than he does?
No one can take advantage of all the benefits of the market, such as buying at the bottom, selling at the top, or 100-fold coins. I don’t believe in them.
If a person can easily take advantage of others by just using his brain, and always plunders from others, then this person is not far from being killed.
The world will not allow people like you to appear.
If you want to know more about the cryptocurrency circle and get first-hand cutting-edge information, click on the avatar to follow me. I will publish market analysis and high-quality potential currency recommendations every day.
