With the US election approaching, how do voters view cryptocurrencies in the political landscape?

Original author: Grayscale

Original translation: Karen, Foresight News

As the 2024 US election approaches, cryptocurrency, as an emerging and controversial field, is gradually becoming the focus of voters. How do US voters view cryptocurrency in the political landscape? What do they think about owning cryptocurrency? These two topics are becoming increasingly important before the 2024 US election.

According to a Grayscale survey of voters in the 2024 US election (collected between April 30 and May 2, 2024), ahead of the June 2024 US presidential debate between Biden and Trump, voters generally expressed uncertainty and concerns about huge risks, such as ongoing wars in multiple regions, continued deep polarization in political discourse, and continued inflation facing the US economy.

The two presidential candidates have drawn very different blueprints for the future of the United States, and nearly half of registered voters admit that if they have the opportunity, they prefer to replace the current candidate. In this uncertain political atmosphere, the importance of crypto assets to voters has become increasingly prominent, as can be seen from the latest survey conducted by The Harris Poll for Grayscale. The following is the main summary:

1. Given macroeconomic trends and the maturity of Bitcoin itself, we observe that Bitcoin's relevance is gradually increasing. Currently, nearly half of voters (47%) expect their portfolios to include cryptocurrencies, an increase from 40% at the end of last year.

2. Consistent with the results of the first phase of this year’s survey, respondents still see inflation as a core issue in the election (accounting for 28%). This phenomenon once again confirms the potential value of assets such as Bitcoin that have a transparent and fixed supply limit.

3. Trump actively advocated for cryptocurrencies in his campaign, and the recent cryptocurrency bills FIT 21 and SAB 121 have also won support from bipartisan congressmen. Harris Poll data further confirms that cryptocurrency has become a bipartisan focus, with ownership rates for Republicans (18%) and Democrats (19%) being quite close.

4. Will November become “Bitcoin election month”?

Voters’ growing interest in cryptocurrencies

Grayscale believes that interest in Bitcoin is increasing due to macro developments and Bitcoin’s gradual maturity as an asset.

In the past six months since the first phase of this survey, voter attention to Bitcoin has increased significantly due to geopolitical tensions, inflation, and dollar risks (41% vs. 34% in November 2023 ).

Of particular note, 28% of voters believe inflation is a central issue in the current election, further highlighting the potential value of assets like Bitcoin that have transparent and strictly limited supply.

In addition, Grayscale added a series of questions to the survey to gain a deeper understanding of voters' views. The Harris Poll's survey results show that important Bitcoin-related events, such as the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024 and the Bitcoin production cut in April 2024, have made voters more interested in investing in Bitcoin and other crypto assets (18% and 20% respectively). In particular, the approval of the Bitcoin ETF has made 9% of retired voters more interested in investing in Bitcoin or crypto assets.

Chart 1: Voters are increasingly interested in Bitcoin

2024 has been a banner year for Bitcoin so far. The price of Bitcoin hit an all-time high on March 13, 2024. Will November be “Bitcoin Election Month”?

Chart 2: Bitcoin prices are higher than during previous elections

Voters’ growing interest in crypto extends beyond Bitcoin to crypto assets more broadly. This interest is reflected both in general interest and investor intent. Nearly a third of voters (32%) say they are more willing to learn about cryptocurrency investing or actually invest in cryptocurrency since the beginning of the year. Voters are also more likely to view cryptocurrencies as good long-term investment opportunities than they were in November 2023 (23% vs. 19%) and increasingly expect some of their portfolios to include cryptocurrencies (47% vs. 40%). This trend clearly demonstrates the growing status of cryptocurrencies in the minds of investors.

Chart 3: Voters increasingly expect to have crypto in their portfolios

Cryptocurrency is a bipartisan political issue

Despite Trump’s greater embrace of cryptocurrencies during the campaign, data shows that cryptocurrencies are a bipartisan issue, with similar ownership rates among Republicans (18%) and Democrats (19%).

Voters are split when it comes to which political party is more favorable to the cryptocurrency industry. An equal percentage of voters (30% each) believe that both the Democratic and Republican parties hold the most favorable stance on cryptocurrency policy. These findings suggest that support for cryptocurrency is not clearly biased toward one party over another, but rather is balanced across the political spectrum. This view aligns with the recent bipartisan support in Congress for SAB 121, which would allow financial institutions to serve as custodians of digital assets, potentially increasing accessibility for cryptocurrency investors.

However, it is worth noting that Republican voters tend to see inflation and economic issues as the most pressing challenges facing the United States (54% vs. 33% for Democrats). Therefore, Republicans seem to attach relatively more importance to issues closely related to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, such as inflation and economic conditions. In contrast, Democrats seem to be more concerned about gun violence, climate change, and income inequality. This difference may explain why Trump tends to emphasize the importance of cryptocurrencies in his recent campaign.

Figure 4: Most pressing single issue for each political party

in conclusion

The United States is facing multiple choices, involving macroeconomic policy issues such as government deficits and debt, inflation and the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the role of the United States on the global stage. The differences between the two candidates on these key issues will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the US dollar and Bitcoin.

As voters' interest in cryptocurrencies continues to grow, the government's future attitude towards this emerging digital asset is attracting much attention. This is especially important for young voters, after all, as many as 62% of Generation Z and Millennial voters firmly believe that cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology will lead the future of finance.

As November approaches, one trend is becoming increasingly clear: cryptocurrency is gradually becoming an issue that policymakers and candidates for the 2024 election cannot ignore.

investigation method

This survey was conducted online by The Harris Poll on behalf of Grayscale from April 30 to May 2, 2024, through its Harris On Demand integrated product, among 1,768 adults (ages 18 and older) in the United States who plan to vote in the 2024 presidential election. Data were weighted, where necessary, by age, sex, race/ethnicity, region, education, marital status, household size, household income, employment, and internet usage to bring them in line with actual population proportions and compared to “Phase 1” data conducted in late November 2023 with the same parameters. The accuracy of the sample data for this study is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. This confidence interval will be wider across the target population of the survey.

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