The market fell back this morning:
Why did this happen? Three reasons
1. The currency in Mentougou began to move. More than 8,000 BTC worth 500 million were withdrawn from the Mentougou wallet to an unknown wallet. Is the black swan really coming? Billions of BTC will be paid before October this year, which is terrible.
2.70000 is only a stone's throw away from the high point of 72000. There are a lot of locked-in plates above. The locked-in plates in March and April this year and the locked-in plates in 21 years have experienced the panic of the plunge. It is not easy to rise back. The locked-in plates must be released. As long as they reach this position, they will be easily smashed down. Therefore, if there is no super big positive, 70,000 is difficult to break. BTC at this price has also lost its appeal. At present, it is better to buy ETH than BTC. ETH at least has positives.
3. Before the release of the PCE data for April in the United States on Friday night, big funds dare not act rashly. They are all waiting for the PCE data. If the data is lower than expected, they will buy it. Therefore, before Friday, the market is likely to fluctuate. According to previous rules, it is more likely to fall before the data is released.
There are a total of 14,200 bitcoins in the Mentougou wallet, about 10 billion US dollars. At present, it is a collection on the chain. If compensation really starts, there is nothing to worry about. First of all, the market volume today will not be too big to digest 10 billion US dollars, because there are ETFs, and the market capital volume is much larger than before. Secondly, the compensation will not be paid all at once, and it will definitely be paid in installments and batches, so even if all the market is smashed, it will not be completed instantly.
Mentougou's compensation is short-term negative and long-term positive. The short-term decline will not affect the concept of trend, and the violent bull market in the second half of the year has not changed. At present, the 4-hour level needs to continue to fluctuate and adjust, and the originally opened upward channel has been destroyed again. Next, we will focus on the 66,000 level. If the 4-hour level falls to this level again, then the short-term will enter the falling support verification mode again.
