【0527 Market Analysis and Operation Suggestions】
Good news cannot resist the tired summer. Control your position. The probability of another correction is high, but it may also be the last chance to get on board.
1. Fundamentals
1. This Monday (May 27) is the "Memorial Day" in the United States. The U.S. stock market is closed. The currency market is expected to continue to consolidate in a narrow range (69,300~68,000). Be patient and wait for better trading opportunities.
2. This Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury will launch a series of repurchase operations for old and difficult-to-trade bonds on a daily basis. This move will be the first since the beginning of this century; at the same time, the Federal Reserve will officially start to slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction in June. These two actions will not only provide liquidity for U.S. bonds, but also for other financial markets, which is good for financial markets, including the currency market.
3. The tired summer trading is coming. Fund managers are waiting for the third quarter earnings season to adjust their positions for the end of the year. Usually, June to August is the least motivated month in the market. Since 1945, the S&P 500 index has only risen 56% of the time during this period. US investment institutions dominate the currency market, and the currency market may follow the habits of US traders and perform poorly.
4. Focus this week: On Friday (May 31st, Beijing time), the United States will announce the annual rate of the core PCE price index and the core PCE price index in April. There may be large fluctuations and better trading opportunities.
2. Technical aspects
1. $BTC : Rebounded from the low of 56550 to 71979, failed to break through the upper track of the falling channel, and the 60-day moving average is still in a slightly downward state. The probability of retesting the 60-day moving average (65600) is very high. This position is also the lower track of this round of rising channel.
2. $ETH : Spot ETF is expected to be approved. Shorting should be cautious before approval. The daily MACD bar line has converged for the fourth consecutive day above the zero axis, which is usually confirmed as a signal of continued consolidation; the deviation rate is at a high level, the price deviation is obvious, and there is a possibility of repair; if the 4-hour new high forms a top divergence; it is not recommended to chase the rise at the current position. At present, the 3500 area is one of the more suitable entry ranges.
