The decentralized prediction platform Polymarket’s bet on the “pass or fail of the Ethereum spot ETF” was as high as $13.22 million. The platform’s final result was approval (Yes), but crypto gamblers have different opinions on the outcome.

(Polymarket election gambling scandal, how did I get caught?)

Ethereum ETF prediction event sparks controversy

According to a prediction event on Polymarket, the amount of bets on whether the Ethereum spot ETF will be approved before May 31 exceeds 13.22 million US dollars, but it seems that the final result of the approval is not explained in detail enough, causing both parties to bet to bet but not to admit defeat. , played a word game.

The main point of contention is that the SEC approved the "19b-4 form" of eight Ethereum spot ETFs, but the S-1 registration statement has not yet taken effect, and the Ethereum spot ETF cannot be officially traded.

(The eight Ethereum spot ETFs have been officially approved, but the issuance and listing will have to wait a little longer)

Polymarket predicts events Approval backers: ETF does pass

Supporters of ratification argue:

  • Prediction markets specify “approval,” not that the ETF must begin trading by May 31.

  • The Form 19b-4 is the final approval, and the S-1 approval usually follows.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart also supports this statement. Although he and another analyst Eric Balchunas always mentioned the need for approval of both 19b-4 and S-1, judging from historical cases, specifically 19b After -4 passes, S-1 approval is just a matter of time.

Opponents stress that Ethereum ETF is not approved

Opponents argue that U.S. market ETFs require both a 19b-4 and an S-1 to trade on an exchange, so without an S-1 filing, a favorable outcome is impossible.

Some users also quoted a tweet from VanEck’s head of digital asset research in the Polymarket comment area, who pointed out that the Ethereum ETF is not considered “approved” until both documents are signed by the SEC.

Foreign media Cointelegraph requested comment from Polymarket developer Adventure One QSS Inc. and oracle platform UMA, but there was no response.

This article Polymarket Ethereum ETF prediction results are controversial, and crypto gamblers have different opinions. First appeared on Chain News ABMedia.