What is the difference between the environments in which Ethereum ETF vs Bitcoin ETF was passed?
First, when Bitcoin ETF was passed, BTC had already experienced a moderate rise in mid-2023 and an accelerated rise from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024. Institutions are likely to have already prepared seed funds (the underlying assets for issuing ETFs). However, judging from the current price trend of ETH, institutions are likely not yet ready for seed funds. Good news for ETH.
Second, when Bitcoin ETF was passed, the market expected a rate cut in March, with optimistic sentiment and active funds. At present, the market expects a rate cut from September to December, with relatively calm sentiment and relatively tight funds. Bad news for ETH.
Third, when Bitcoin ETF was passed, BTC inscriptions had experienced a small peak of speculation, and the sentiment in the market was high. At present, there seems to be no new narrative in the ETH-related sectors, and the related tokens have risen but the sentiment is obviously not as good as BTC inscriptions. Affecting the outbreak of ETH market sentiment.
Fourth, Bitcoin ETF was passed on the same day, while Ethereum ETF was passed in stages. Affecting the outbreak of ETH market sentiment.
Therefore, the next stage is for the SEC and institutions to continue preparing relevant documents, and institutions to start preparing seed funds, plus the impact of the macro environment, and the emotional outbreak of phased circulation. Next, ETH may have a mild rise, and it is still early for a big outbreak. Other tokens, including ETH-related sector tokens, need to be treated with caution (it is not ruled out that ETH will repeat the history of the big cake sucking blood in the second and third quarters of last year).
Be careful around June 12-13, the United States will release CPI data in the evening of the 12th Beijing time, and the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision and the interest rate forecast dot plot in the early morning of the 13th Beijing time.