75% chance of ETH ETF being approved, but if you enter now, will you win?

First, let's try to analyze the possibility of Ethereum ETF approval and the impact on the price of $ETH :

1. Ethereum (ETH) ETF Approval Likelihood:

Currently, there is a high probability (about 75%) that the SEC will approve an Ethereum ETF. However, this approval should not be seen as a sure victory. We should monitor the situation and wait for an official announcement from the SEC.

Gary Gensler, Chairman of the SEC, did not reveal the decision on the Ethereum ETF, but did advise us to monitor developments.

2. Impact on ETH price when ETF is approved:

In the short term, ETF approval could increase the price of ETH and create positive signals (pump). However, this price increase may not be sustainable.

When the Bitcoin ETF was approved, the market “sold the news” for a while. The same thing could happen with ETH.

Large volume orders on exchanges (e.g. Binance) often increase dramatically when there are rumors of approval.

3. Role of Grayscale and liquidity:

Grayscale currently holds large amounts of ETH (total value approximately $11.15 billion). This shows that the majority are profitable.

News of the approval could help increase liquidity, facilitating profit-taking. Whales have the opportunity to add more stock, while funds can buy more OTC.

It is expected that the price of $ETH will increase in the medium term.

Personal investment strategy:

According to technical analysis, ETH is entering the resistance zone at the intersection of two FIBO levels and there is a possibility of a further bearish candle appearing at the close of the session.

In my personal opinion, buying $ETH may be reasonable when the price drops to around the 3000 USDT mark. To reduce risk, you can apply the DCA strategy at 2900 USDT.

The analysis is from a personal objective point of view, let's discuss this topic together.