How will the results of ETH's ETF tonight affect the market?
1. Failure to pass is bearish. The Ethereum system plummeted across the board, and it may even drive the market down.
2. All ETFs passed at once. Just like all BTC ETFs passed on the same day, it means that the ETH ETF also passed. Compared with holding 3 million ETH, the market value is about 11 billion, and the management fee is 2.5%. Because early users have been trapped for 2 or 3 years, they can finally sell, and the management fee is high, so the selling volume is huge in the short term. It is likely to repeat the market after BTC's ETF passed, and then BTC fell from 48,000 to around 40,000.
3. At that time, the application time will only pass the vanEck ETF application. Time, Grayscale's ETF will be reviewed on June 18. Before that, there are three ETFs from vanEck, ARK&21shares, and hashdex that need to be launched. This means that before June 18, the ETF will be almost entirely bought, and there will be no major positive for the market, and Ethereum will hit a new high.
4. Semi-passed negative selling exists at the same time. That is, only the 19b-4 document is passed, and the s1 document is approved later, which may take weeks or months. [No threshold to enter the village; Satellite (L20240098)] This situation is the most complicated, because the landing of the positive will inevitably hit the capital plate, but the subsequent full approval is also a positive. Intertwined, capital game, long and short battle. However, no matter which of the above results, for long-term holders, it can be ignored. After all, ETFs are incremental funds in the long run, the bottom of the cake will rise to 100,000, and Ethereum will rise to 10,000!
