The US cryptocurrency regulatory policy may undergo a major shift, which is more important than the ETF itself

In the early morning of May 21, Bloomberg analysts suddenly tweeted that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hopes to return the revised 19b-4 documents of the spot Ethereum ETF to them before 10 am local time. This is considered to be a substantial progress in the Ethereum ETF.

Ethereum rose 20% in a short period of time, and Ethereum-related tokens rose sharply. After the Bitcoin ETF was passed in January this year, it triggered a surge in the crypto market, and Bitcoin broke through $70,000. The market also expected the Ethereum ETF to pass. However, the market sentiment has always been obviously negative about the possibility of the Ethereum spot ETF being approved. According to the market implied odds of Polymarket, the possibility of approval before the news came out was only 11%. In addition, the US SEC has been investigating Ethereum and the foundation, and Chairman Gensler, who holds a key vote, has been making negative comments on POS.

Then, suddenly, for no reason, there was substantial progress in the Ethereum ETF. As soon as the news came out, the probability of passing instantly increased by more than 50%, and the ETH/BTC ratio also rebounded strongly. Bloomberg ETF analysts also raised the chances of spot Ethereum ETF approval from 25% to 75%.

Industry analysts believe that the more likely explanation is the need for politicization, and the Biden administration wants to please voters who are friendly to the cryptocurrency circle.

Variant Fund Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky said: If the spot ETH ETF is really approved, everyone I know who understands the regulatory situation in Washington will be shocked. This means that the US cryptocurrency regulatory policy has undergone a major shift, which may be more important than the ETF itself.

In other words, the United States clearly wants to control the crypto market. Unlike the Bitcoin ETF passed in January, Bitcoin has almost no ecology and only has the attributes of "digital gold"; Ethereum is different. It has more ecological possibilities and is called the "king of ecology". It has a lot of room for imagination in shaping the traditional world and commercial landing. Jiaoliu qun+V: WG65825 The US's intention is probably: controlling Bitcoin can better serve the US dollar hegemony, and controlling Ethereum can better promote the development of the blockchain ecology.

In the development of the blockchain ecosystem, whether it is DeFi, NFT, RWA or the future Web3, regulatory policies need to intervene, especially RWA (tokenization of real-world assets) worth trillions of dollars. If there is a legal and compliant environment, it may show the potential for explosive growth at the moment of landing.

By moving away from the pure hype of tokens, crypto assets will truly move towards commercial-level applications, which will inevitably require regulatory compliance, scale and ecology to expand into a vast space. That is why it is said that a major shift in US cryptocurrency regulatory policies is more important than the ETF itself.

Hong Kong has also passed ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, but in terms of scale and transactions, they are somewhat "ugly", even less than 1% of Wall Street's size. It has to be admitted that the future of the crypto market still depends on Wall Street.

However, from the perspective of industry development, whether it is "digital gold" or the ecological development of blockchain, future crypto assets will take 2024 as the starting point, and begin to walk out of their own path and bloom their own brilliance. #以太坊ETF批准预期 #ETH