#BTC When the spot ETF was passed, the situation was almost the same, except that the main character became the Federal Reserve and the supporting role became the SEC. For BTC, there are only two most critical data, one is the change of the four support chips representing the support, and the other is the change of the exchange inventory.
It is not that other data is useless, but in the current situation, any data is difficult to match the expectations of the Federal Reserve. For example, even if $5 billion enters, the Federal Reserve will directly cut interest rates once in the June interest rate meeting, and this money will not flow into the market. On the other hand, even if BTC falls to $55,000 now, Powell will directly announce a rate cut tomorrow, and the price can return to $65,000.
This is actually the best tool of the Federal Reserve, that is, the expectation management market.
But compared to the Federal Reserve, there is now a new branch, the spot ETF of #ETH. Many friends said that if ETH passes, BTC will no longer be the only one, which may be bad for BTC. I think this is over-concern. This is just like there cannot be only one Apple in the US stock market. Only high-quality assets can be favored by capital, and more assets can leverage greater liquidity. The passage of ETH is a good thing for BTC, one focuses on payment and the other focuses on infrastructure.
In fact, BlackRock knew it when it established its own RWA on #Ethereum. Recalling the words of the head of BlackRock's investment, "Our users need BTC and a small amount of ETH, and a little bit of other things." Even if there is only 10% of the BTC volume, it is a great support for ETH, let alone if it is greater than 10%, it is even more immeasurable. At first, who would have thought that the#Bitcoinspot ETF could obtain more than $27 billion in investment in three months, which is the annual data of gold.
Not off topic, judging from the current data, long-term investors still have no reaction to BTC price breaking through $71,000, even though the price has increased BTC liquidity, and BTC liquidity has increased more than 3 times in 24 hours compared to the previous working day. However, early investors are still indifferent. Can you say they are stupid? I don't believe it.
To put it bluntly, in rounds of wash-outs, stupid investors have long been eliminated. Those who are still on the market now either have low enough costs, have enough faith, or are betting that this halving will not disappoint investors.So even if it fell below $56,000, they didn't leave, and even if it rose to $71,000, they didn't leave, because their goal may be longer-term.
This is what I have always emphasized before. It is difficult for investors to give up their chips at low prices.
From the current support, I will not elaborate on the four support levels one by one. The key point is that the support around $65,000 is still very solid, which is why I still have confidence when it fell to $56,000 before. If the investors who lost the most do not leave the market, then the price decline will inevitably be limited, and they will come back sooner or later, which is indeed the case.
Moreover, the changes in the first three support levels are smaller, which also shows that investors who made profits early have no interest in turnover. Although this data cannot determine #BTC #BTC , it can clearly show when most investors will be willing to leave the market. Once the support is broken, it is likely that this bull market will end.
Finally, there is the inventory of the exchange, which has been mentioned countless times. When the stock of exchanges repeatedly refreshes the lowest stock in the past six years, it shows that more investors who have bought and investors who have already held positions are not in a hurry to sell, and more investors are still waiting for the subsequent development of BTC. If no one sells, how low can it fall?
So don’t look at the old sayings every day, but those who don’t listen still don’t listen. This has nothing to do with long and short. It’s just stating a fact. The biggest macro impact this week is the University of Michigan’s one-year inflation expectations on Friday.
