Tomorrow! Will the SEC "release" the Ethereum ETF? If rejected, how big is the risk of a pullback?

Because of a rumor, Ethereum has achieved its largest increase in 18 months, and market sentiment has also driven Bitcoin to stand on the integer mark of 70,000 US dollars again. However, the SEC will make a final decision on VanEck's application before May 23, and the result of this application will directly affect the resolution of other applications.

Many people will worry whether it is a "dog dealer" who deceives us? After all, it has been bloodbathed many times before. If it is rejected, how big is the risk of a pullback?

Let's look at it in two situations:

1) If it is passed, there will be two results:

First, Ethereum will continue to rise, and it is expected to have a 30-40% increase. Breaking through the previous high is not a problem. Compared with Bitcoin, which broke through the previous high of 69,000 in March, Ethereum's 4868 is still a long way off.

Second, the good news is bad news, and a pullback will start. Looking back at the week after the Bitcoin spot ETF was passed, it also experienced a pullback. I think this probability will be greater, at least more than 50%.

2) If it fails and is rejected, it will definitely be a big correction: After all, the expectation is gone, and it is not impossible to fall back to less than 3,000. For friends who have not had time to get on the train, it is a good opportunity.

Finally, combined with the recent macro and market conditions, the speech of the Federal Reserve officials last night was still hawkish, and the road to interest rate cuts is still long; in addition, the on-chain data showed that more than 10,000 bitcoins flowed into the exchange yesterday, which is also bearish.

So in summary, the more prudent approach is to stop partial profit at the right time, and you can advance or retreat. If you pass the big rise, you will not miss the opportunity. If you fail the correction, you will have cash to buy the bottom.

#以太坊ETF批准预期 #5月市场关键事件 $ETH

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