"Looking ahead to the endless frontier technology; seeing into the future, leading the new era of investment research.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:
Members’ Twitter IDs: Golden Egg Diary @jindanriji; Elk Will Not Get Lost @crypto_elk_; Forex Brother; Xibei @Asterismone;
The first round of WTR on-chain data subscription (OG) is officially launched!
Data provided: WTR’s self-developed market short-term, medium-term and long-term on-chain data, as well as some small currency data.
First round pricing: 399U/year.
Payment supports both on-chain and off-chain transfers.
Other notes: We have prepared a strategy package for OG users. The number of places in the strategy package is limited. The current strategy package is only open to the first round of OG users. Subscriptions can be added directly to the OG user group. For details, please see Twitter or WeChat official account.
Weekly Review
This week, from June 13 to June 20, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $67,700 and the lowest price was close to $60,610, with a fluctuation range of about 11%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 63,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 1.1 million pieces;
64000-68000: about 930,000 pieces;
The probability of not falling below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Important news
Economic News
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States this week was 222,000, higher than the expected 220,000. The easing of the job market and the resumption of the downward trend in inflation have increased the possibility of a rate cut in September.
Fed's Williams is more optimistic about inflation than traders, and Williams expects inflation to fall to 2.5% by the end of this year (market expectations are 3.05%). If Williams's prediction is correct, it means the Fed may cut interest rates earlier than the market expects.
Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic said he was grateful for the cooling of the latest CPI report and would pay attention to the data in May and June to ensure that the data did not reverse, and it might be appropriate to cut interest rates before the end of the year.
Analyst Jacob Mitchell said if you put the inflation data together with the retail sales data from earlier in the week, it's a pretty big weakness.
Bank of America data showed that in the latest week, U.S. money funds had a net outflow of $3.7 billion; inflation-protected bonds had a net outflow of $700 million, the largest outflow in nine weeks; the stock market had an inflow of $11.9 billion; and cryptocurrencies had an inflow of $200 million.
After the release of the US CPI data for April, several major banks on Wall Street released their latest research reports to comment on the data. JPMorgan Chase said that inflation is returning to a downward track and still believes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in July.
Morgan Stanley said they expect inflation to cool further in the future, especially in the second half of the year, and still believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in September this year.
Goldman Sachs said they maintained their forecast for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in July, with the central bank to cut rates once a quarter thereafter.
Encrypted ecological news
The U.S. Senate voted 60 to 38 to reject the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) controversial crypto-asset accounting rules.
Yorke Rhodes, head of digital transformation, blockchain and cloud supply chain at Microsoft, said that as encryption and artificial intelligence technologies advance, agents can be created that combine the power of both, and we have only scratched the surface of cryptocurrency and AI.
The Swiss Federal Council has issued a consultation document on plans to adopt a global cryptocurrency tax reporting standard (CARF), expanding Switzerland’s progressive cryptocurrency market regulation and helping to maintain the reputation of Switzerland as a financial center.
May 23 and May 24 are the deadlines for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to decide whether to approve the spot ETH ETF applications submitted by VanEck and ArkInvest/21Shares respectively.
Morgan Stanley holds $269.9 million in spot BTC ETFs. Morgan Stanley is one of many global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) that have disclosed their investments in spot BTC ETFs. Other banks include Royal Bank of Canada, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BNP Paribas and UBS Group.
Balchunas said that U.S. national pension funds purchased BlackRock IBIT in the first quarter, which was different from the past and a good sign.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Expenditure of long-term and short-term participants
Total spot selling pressure
Large net positions on exchanges
US Crypto ETFs
(Figure below shows the expenditures of long-term and short-term participants)
Large expenditures (sells) at the thresholds in the green range box generally put some pressure on prices.
It may even create stage tops and cycle tops.
It has not yet reached the high level or warning position.
(Figure below: Total spot selling pressure)
The red range of the total spot selling pressure generally implies a relatively low selling pressure, and most of it in the market usually shows the bottom of the market stage.
It has now moved out of the low selling pressure range, but the amount of selling pressure in the market has not increased.
(The following figure shows large net positions on exchanges)
The large inflows and outflows of the exchange show that the market has had a large outflow in recent days, which means that large-scale participants have generated more buying chips.
Compared with the sluggish performance in the previous two weeks, this is a good sign.
(Figure below: US Crypto ETF)
The US ETF is still in positive territory, which shows that US institutions and participants have become interested in the current price of cryptocurrencies, which may be related to some macro reasons.
And the large net positions show that there is a certain correlation between ETFs and net positions, which means that large buy orders are caused by ETFs, and a single order of more than 10 million US dollars means more direct purchases by over-the-counter institutions.
Mid-term exploration
Whale comprehensive scoring model
Whale Exchange Net Position
Positive sentiment on the Internet
Incremental Model
(The following figure shows the comprehensive scoring model of the giant whale)
The situation of the whale remains at the "high" level.
Maybe the overall situation is still in a good state.
(The following figure shows the net position of the whale exchange)
The giant whales are depositing large amounts of coins into exchanges, which increases the pressure on the market.
Currently, whales are withdrawing coins in small amounts, and the potential selling pressure in the market has been alleviated to a certain extent.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
There has been a slight repair in online sentiment, and the recent situation may have improved.
(Incremental model below)
The incremental model shows that supply from short-term players has picked up and is currently stuck and paused.
Maybe the overall situation has improved.
Judging from today's situation, the market has already completed the stage with the largest increase, and the next stage of growth may require an increase in the increase.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor is in the danger zone. Derivatives risk is increasing.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
The risk factor fell back to the danger zone from the neutral zone last week, indicating that the current market may continue to fluctuate in this price range and the probability of short squeeze is low.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
There was a slight increase in option trading volume, and the proportion of put options was at a relatively low level.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volumes were at low levels.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility fell slightly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral to strong
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The current short-term holder cost line is around 61K. This small rebound has also brought back the market's positive sentiment (blue line).
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC outflows in large quantities, ETH inflows accumulate in small amounts, and the overall selling pressure is low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
The overall outflow of BTC exchange net positions has accumulated, and the net positions within the exchanges continue to decline.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
There is a small amount of inflow accumulation in the net position of ETH exchanges. It is possible that some chips are waiting for the approval of the gaming ETF.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has remained basically unchanged.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
Currently, the purchasing power of the Americas has recovered slightly, but the purchasing power of Asia and Europe is still losing. But overall, the purchasing power of the Americas is dominant.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDT net position remained flat overall.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 60000, 62000, and 63000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 68000, 70000 and 72000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 60000, 61000, 63000, and 66000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 68000, 70000 and 72000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 60,000, 64,000, and 65,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 68,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
As mentioned in last month’s weekly report, the market will enter a repair phase in May, and the market has already seen relative repair.
Concerns about "secondary inflation" in the United States have eased, economic indicators and CPI are weak, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year is emerging.
The U.S. stock index hit a new high, and the cryptocurrency rebounded by 10 points. As U.S. employment and economic indicators weaken, it is expected that inflation will be difficult to rebound in the later period, and discussions on interest rate cuts will increase.
Market support gradually strengthened until the rate cut was fully priced in, and as the rate cut went from 5.5 to 2.5, the market fully digested the rate cut to 2.5.
Even before the expectation of "no more interest rate cuts" reverses, the capital market and risk market will form relatively obvious support before that and complete this relatively long round of monetary easing period.
On-chain long-term insights:
Judging from the total spot selling pressure, the market selling pressure is not high;
The exchange generated multiple large buy orders exceeding US$10 million. After comparing and analyzing with US stock ETFs, these large orders may have come from direct purchases by over-the-counter institutions.
Market setting:
Institutional interest may gradually pick up and support gradually strengthens.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The Whales are still in good scoring form;
The pressure in the whale's contraction field;
The mood on the field has recovered somewhat;
There was a slight increase in the on-site volume.
Market setting:
improve
There are already signs that the market needs to shrink, and with the big whales exerting pressure to shrink, the deteriorating market situation may be temporarily alleviated.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the danger zone and the risk is increasing.
The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
Market sentiment status rating: neutral to bullish.
The overall net position of the exchange shows a large outflow of BTC and a small inflow of ETH, and the overall selling pressure is relatively low.
Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has remained basically unchanged.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 65,000 and a willingness to sell at 70,000
The probability that it will not fall below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Market setting:
Market sentiment is neutral to bullish, purchasing power levels have slightly rebounded this week, and market selling pressure is relatively low.
Although the current price may face some resistance in the short term based on the risk factor of the core indicator, the probability of a sharp decline in the market is low when considering other indicators and the short-term holder cost line has risen to around 61K. In addition, ETH-related news is approaching this week, so you can just wait and gamble in the short term.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
Welcome to follow us!